Key Takeaways: Injuries and Their Impact
One-Page Reference
Position Impact Hierarchy
| Tier | Position | Point Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quarterback | 3-7 points |
| 1 | Left Tackle | 1-2 points |
| 2 | Edge Rusher | 1-2 points |
| 2 | CB1 / WR1 | 0.5-1.5 points |
| 3 | Interior OL/DL | 0.3-1 point |
| 4 | Depth players | <0.5 points |
Injury Status Probabilities
| Status | Miss Rate | Historical |
|---|---|---|
| Out | 100% | Certain miss |
| Doubtful | ~75% | Usually miss |
| Questionable | ~45% | Coin flip |
| None listed | ~5% | Usually plays |
Practice Pattern Signals: - Full all week → 95%+ plays - DNP → Limited → Usually game-time - DNP all week → Usually out
The Core Formula
Injury Adjustment = Weight × Differential × Probability
Where:
- Weight = Position importance (0-1)
- Differential = Starter value - Backup value
- Probability = Likelihood of missing
QB Injury Quick Reference
| Starter Tier | Backup Tier | Spread Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Elite | Average | +5 to +7 points |
| Good | Average | +3 to +5 points |
| Average | Average | +1 to +2 points |
| Any | Quality | 1-2 pts less |
Compound Effect Multiplier
| Same Position Group | Multiplier |
|---|---|
| 2 players out | 1.15x |
| 3 players out | 1.30x |
| 4 players out | 1.45x |
Example: 2 OL out × 1.5 base = 1.73 total impact
Game-Time Decision Analysis
Expected Value = Σ (Scenario_Probability × Scenario_Impact)
Two-player questionable example:
- Both play (30%): 0 adjustment
- One out (40%): -1.5 adjustment
- Both out (30%): -3.5 adjustment
- Expected: -1.65 points
Return From Injury Adjustments
| Injury Type | First Game | Full Recovery |
|---|---|---|
| Soft tissue | 80% value | 3-4 games |
| Concussion | 90% value | 1-2 games |
| ACL/structural | 75% value | 6-8 games |
Market Pricing Patterns
Typically Well-Priced: - Star QB injuries - Known injury news (> 24 hours)
Potential Inefficiencies: - Multiple depth injuries - Game-time decision uncertainty - Return from injury performance
Quick Decision Tree
Is it a QB injury?
├── Yes → Apply full QB model (3-7 pts)
└── No → Check position tier
├── Tier 1-2 → Significant (1-2 pts)
└── Tier 3-4 → Minor (<1 pt)
Multiple injuries?
├── Yes → Apply compound multiplier
└── No → Use base calculation
Status questionable?
├── Yes → Use probability weighting
└── No → Apply full miss/play
Key Insight
Quarterback injuries have 3-5x the impact of any other position. When assessing non-QB injuries, focus on backup quality as much as starter quality. The market generally prices obvious injuries well, but compound effects and game-time decisions create uncertainty worth modeling.