Further Reading: Team Efficiency Metrics
Expected Points Added (EPA)
"Expected Points and EPA Explained" by Ben Baldwin The definitive guide to understanding EPA in football. https://www.opensourcefootball.com/posts/2020-09-28-nflfastr-ep-wp-and-டrpa-models/
"The Origins of Expected Points" by Brian Burke Historical development of the EP framework. https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/
nflfastR Documentation Technical details on EPA calculation methodology. https://www.nflfastr.com/
Success Rate
"Success Rate: The Ultimate Football Metric" by Football Outsiders Why success rate captures team quality better than yards. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
"First Down Success and Winning" by various analysts Research on how first down efficiency predicts outcomes.
"The 40% Success Rate Threshold" by analysts Identifying the success rate floor for competitive teams.
Team Efficiency Rankings
ESPN QBR and Team Metrics ESPN's team efficiency methodology. https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr
Pro Football Focus (PFF) Team Grades Grade-based team evaluation approach. https://www.pff.com/
Football Outsiders DVOA Defense-adjusted Value Over Average methodology. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
Wins vs Expected Wins
"Pythagorean Expectation in Football" by various Adapting baseball's Pythagorean theorem to football.
"Expected Wins from Point Differential" by Brian Burke The relationship between points and wins.
"Why Record Lies" by analysts How efficiency metrics predict better than win-loss.
Regression to the Mean
"The Hot Hand Fallacy in Football" by researchers Understanding statistical regression in sports.
"Turnover Margin Is Luck" by various Why extreme turnover margins don't persist.
"Close Game Regression" by Ben Baldwin Analysis of one-score game win rate sustainability.
Pass vs Rush Efficiency
"Passing Is More Efficient Than Rushing" by research The fundamental efficiency gap in football.
"Why Teams Still Run" by various Game theory explanations for rushing frequency.
"The Rush-Pass Balance Myth" by analysts Debunking the need for "balance" in play calling.
Explosiveness Metrics
"Big Plays and Winning" by Football Outsiders How explosive plays correlate with success.
"Explosiveness vs Consistency Trade-offs" by analysts Strategic implications of offensive styles.
"Explosive Play Prevention" by defensive analysts Why limiting big plays matters for defense.
Composite Ratings
"Building a Team Rating System" by various Approaches to combining multiple metrics.
"Weighting Offensive vs Defensive Metrics" by researchers How to balance offense and defense in ratings.
FiveThirtyEight Elo Ratings A different approach to team quality ratings. https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/nfl-elo/
Year-to-Year Stability
"What Persists in the NFL" by Football Outsiders Analysis of metric stability across seasons.
"Projecting Team Performance" by analysts Using stability coefficients for forecasting.
"Why Passing Metrics Are More Predictive" by various The stability gap between pass and rush metrics.
Opponent Adjustment
"Schedule Strength Adjustments" by researchers Methods for adjusting raw metrics for opponent quality.
"Iterative Rating Systems" by Colley/Massey Academic approaches to opponent-adjusted ratings.
"Simple vs Complex Opponent Adjustments" by analysts When sophistication helps and when it doesn't.
Garbage Time
"Defining Garbage Time" by various analysts Different approaches to filtering low-leverage plays.
"Win Probability and Play Value" by Brian Burke How game state affects play importance.
"The Problem with Garbage Time Stats" by analysts Why filtering matters for accurate evaluation.
Data Sources
nfl_data_py / nflfastR The primary source for NFL play-by-play data with EPA. https://github.com/nflverse/nfl_data_py
Pro Football Reference Historical team statistics and records. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
NFL Next Gen Stats Official NFL tracking data and metrics. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/
Academic Research
"Predicting NFL Game Outcomes" by various Academic papers on win probability models.
"Efficiency Metrics in American Football" by researchers Statistical analysis of team performance measures.
MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Papers Annual collection of sports analytics research. https://www.sloansportsconference.com/
Tools and Calculators
Lee Sharpe's Win Probability Calculator Interactive tool for NFL win probability.
Ben Baldwin's EPA Visualizations Weekly EPA charts and team rankings. https://rbsdm.com/
NFLVerse Data Tools Comprehensive NFL data ecosystem. https://nflverse.nflverse.com/
Video Content
Secret Base NFL Analytics Videos Accessible explanations of advanced metrics. https://www.youtube.com/c/SecretBase
Brett Kollmann Film Breakdowns How efficiency manifests in actual plays. https://www.youtube.com/user/BrettKollmann
The Athletic Football Show Analytics-informed team discussions.
Podcasts
PFF NFL Podcast Regular discussion of team grades and metrics.
The Ringer NFL Show Analytics perspective on team performance.
4th and Loud Advanced analytics discussion.
Books
"The Hidden Game of Football" by Carroll, Palmer, and Thorn The pioneering book on football analytics.
"Football Analytics with Python" by various authors Practical programming for football analysis.
"Mathletics" by Wayne Winston Broader sports analytics including football chapters.
Blogs and Newsletters
Open Source Football Community blog for football analytics. https://www.opensourcefootball.com/
The Athletic (subscription) Premium analytics coverage. https://theathletic.com/
FTN Fantasy/Analytics Regular efficiency metric analysis. https://ftnfantasy.com/
Twitter/X Analytics Community
@benaborb (Ben Baldwin) Weekly EPA updates and visualizations.
@benbbaldwin NFL analytics content.
@SethWalder ESPN analytics correspondent.
@PFF_Mike Pro Football Focus analytics.
@fbgchase Football analysis and modeling.
Historical Context
"The Evolution of NFL Offenses" by researchers How offensive efficiency has changed over time.
"Defensive Schemes and EPA" by analysts Impact of defensive evolution on efficiency metrics.
"Rule Changes and Offensive Efficiency" by various How rules have shaped modern efficiency levels.
Advanced Topics
"Machine Learning for Team Ratings" by researchers Using ML to build predictive team models.
"Bayesian Approaches to Team Evaluation" by statisticians Incorporating uncertainty into ratings.
"Network Analysis of Team Performance" by academics Graph-based approaches to understanding team quality.
Related Metrics
"CPOE and Team Passing" by Ben Baldwin Completion percentage over expected at team level.
"Pressure Rate and Defensive Efficiency" by PFF How pressure generation correlates with success.
"Yards After Catch and Scheme" by analysts Separating YAC ability from scheme effects.
Practical Applications
"Using EPA for Betting" by sports bettors How efficiency informs gambling decisions.
"Fantasy Football and Team Efficiency" by fantasy analysts Efficiency context for player evaluation.
"Draft Capital and Future Efficiency" by analysts Connecting team building to performance metrics.