Further Reading: Receiving Analytics

"Target Share and Production" by various analysts Research on the relationship between targets and output.

"WOPR: Weighted Opportunity Rating" by Josh Hermsmeyer The foundational article on combining target and air yards share.

"Market Share and Fantasy Football" by Establish the Run How target share translates to production.

Air Yards and RACR

"Intended Air Yards vs Completed Air Yards" by Josh Hermsmeyer Deep dive into what air yards metrics reveal about receivers.

"RACR: Receiver Air Conversion Ratio" by various How to interpret air yards conversion efficiency.

"Air Yards and Expected Fantasy Points" by FantasyPoints Practical applications of air yards metrics.

Catch Rate Over Expected

"Expected Completion Percentage" by NFL Next Gen Stats How the NFL calculates catch probability. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary

"Catch Rate vs Expected Catch Rate" by PFF Methodology for evaluating receiver catching skill.

"Separation and Catch Probability" research How tracking data informs expected catch rate.

YAC and Receiving Style

"Yards After Catch Analysis" by various analysts Breaking down the YAC component of receiving.

"Receiver Profiles: YAC vs Air Yards" by multiple sources Categorizing receivers by playing style.

"What YAC Tells Us About Receiver Skill" by The Athletic Is YAC a receiver skill or scheme product?

QB Attribution Problem

"Separating QB from Receiver" by PFF Attempts to isolate individual contribution.

"The Attribution Problem in Passing Stats" by research Academic approaches to credit assignment.

"Receiver Stability Across Quarterbacks" by analysts Do receiver stats hold when QB changes?

Separation and Route Running

Next Gen Stats Separation Data How AWS tracks receiver separation. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/

"Route Running Grades" by PFF Qualitative evaluation of receiver skill.

"Separation vs Catch Rate" research How separation affects completion probability.

Position-Specific Analysis

"Tight End Analytics" by various Evaluating the hybrid TE position.

"Slot vs Outside Receiver Production" by analysts Position-specific receiving metrics.

"Running Back Receiving Value" (see Chapter 7) Evaluating RB pass-catching contribution.

Contract and Value

"Wide Receiver Contract Analysis" by Over The Cap Market rates for receivers. https://overthecap.com/

"What to Pay a Number One Receiver" by analytics teams Data-driven receiver valuation.

"Receiver Free Agent Analysis" by industry Evaluating receiver signings historically.

Fantasy Football Applications

"Target Share and Fantasy Production" by Establish the Run How receiving metrics translate to fantasy.

"Air Yards and Fantasy Value" by FantasyPoints Using air yards for player projections.

"Weighted Opportunity Metrics" by various WOPR and other fantasy-oriented receiving stats.

Data Visualization

"Receiving Charts and Plots" by analysts Best practices for visualizing receiver data.

"Target Tree Plots" by various Visualizing where receivers line up and get targeted.

Composing Receiving Dashboards Building comprehensive receiver analysis visuals.

Academic Research

"Receiving Contribution in Football" (academic papers) Peer-reviewed studies on receiver evaluation.

"Pass-Catching Efficiency Models" by researchers Statistical approaches to receiver analysis.

"Attribution in Team Sports" by economists General framework for credit assignment.

Historical Context

"Evolution of the Passing Game" by Football Outsiders How receiver roles have changed.

"Great Receivers: Stats in Context" by historians Contextualizing legendary receivers.

"The Three-Receiver Revolution" by analysts How 11 personnel changed receiving.

Video Analysis

"Route Running Breakdown" by film analysts What stats can't capture about receivers.

Nate Tice Wide Receiver Analysis Detailed video breakdowns of receiving.

"Release and Separation" by Brett Kollmann How receivers create separation.

Data Sources

nfl_data_py / nflfastR Primary source for play-by-play receiving data. https://github.com/nflverse/nfl_data_py

Pro Football Reference Career receiving statistics. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

Next Gen Stats Tracking data: separation, catch probability. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/

PFF Grades and advanced receiving metrics (subscription). https://www.pff.com/

Podcasts and Content

Fantasy Footballers Receiving analysis for fantasy application.

The Athletic Football Show Data-informed receiving discussions.

Establish the Run Podcast Analytics-driven receiver evaluation.

Community Discussion

r/NFLstatheads (Reddit) Technical discussions of receiving metrics.

#NFLTwitter Analytics Community Real-time receiving analysis and debate.