Key Takeaways: Draft Analysis
One-Page Reference
Production Metrics by Position
| Position | Key Metrics | NFL Correlation |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Adj Comp%, TD:INT, YPA | 0.30-0.35 |
| RB | YAC/Att, Breakaway Rate | 0.32-0.38 |
| WR | YPRR, Contested Catch% | 0.35-0.42 |
| TE | YPRR, Blocking Grade | 0.28-0.35 |
Conference Adjustment Factors
SEC: 1.15 Big Ten: 1.10
ACC: 1.05 Big 12: 1.00
Pac-12: 1.00 AAC: 0.90
Mountain West: 0.85
FCS: 0.65
Breakout Age Thresholds
| Position | Elite | Good | Concern |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | ≤19.5 | ≤20.5 | ≤21.5 |
| RB | ≤19.0 | ≤20.0 | ≤21.0 |
| QB | ≤20.0 | ≤21.0 | ≤22.0 |
| TE | ≤20.5 | ≤21.5 | ≤22.5 |
Dominator Rating Thresholds
| Rating | WR/TE | RB |
|---|---|---|
| 35%+ | Elite alpha | Bell cow |
| 25-35% | Quality starter | Lead back |
| 15-25% | Role player | Committee |
| <15% | Limited upside | Depth |
Speed Score Formula
Speed Score = (Weight × 200) / (40 time)^4
Elite thresholds:
- RB: >105
- WR: >95
- TE: >100
Position-Specific Combine Thresholds
Elite Athletic Marks:
| Position | 40-yard | Vertical | 3-cone |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 4.45 | 38" | 6.75 |
| RB | 4.48 | 36" | 7.00 |
| CB | 4.42 | 38" | 6.70 |
| TE | 4.60 | 34" | 7.00 |
Draft Pick Value (Approximate)
Pick 1: 3000 Pick 10: 1500
Pick 20: 800 Pick 32: 500
Pick 50: 300 Pick 100: 100
Pick 150: 40 Pick 200: 20
Position Premium in Draft
Premium positions (draft earlier):
QB: 1.3x, OT: 1.2x, EDGE: 1.2x, CB: 1.1x
Standard positions:
WR: 1.0x, DT: 1.0x
Discounted positions:
RB: 0.85x, TE: 0.90x, IOL: 0.90x
Success Rate by Pick Range
| Pick Range | Starter Rate | Pro Bowl Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 65% | 25% |
| 11-32 | 50% | 15% |
| 33-64 | 40% | 10% |
| 65-100 | 30% | 5% |
| 100+ | 20% | 3% |
QB Evaluation Decision Tree
Is Adj Completion% > 65%?
├── Yes → Check TD:INT ratio
│ ├── > 3.0 → Starter projection
│ └── < 3.0 → Development concern
└── No → Red flag (accuracy issues)
Is 40 time < 4.65?
├── Yes → Mobility asset
└── No → Must rely on pocket skills
WR Archetype Classification
Speed (40 < 4.40) + YPRR > 2.5 → BURNER
Height ≥ 6'2" + Contested > 55% → X-RECEIVER
Agility (3-cone < 6.85) → SLOT
Balanced → ALL-AROUND
Key Insight
Draft analysis balances statistical production against physical traits and contextual factors. Early breakout age and dominator rating predict alpha potential. Combine metrics indicate athleticism but not NFL success directly. Position-specific models account for different success predictors—rushing production matters less than receiving ability for modern RBs, while QB accuracy metrics outweigh raw arm strength.
Red Flags
- Late Breakout Age - Production after age 21 concerns
- Low Dominator - Couldn't dominate college competition
- Poor Conference - FCS/weak FBS production inflated
- Age at Draft - Older prospects have less development time
- One-Dimensional - RBs who can't catch, slow WRs
Model Weighting Guidelines
QB Model: - Production: 50% - Athleticism: 20% - Context: 30%
WR Model: - Production: 40% - Athleticism: 30% - Profile: 30%
RB Model: - Production: 30% - Athleticism: 35% - Receiving: 35%