Further Reading: Quarterback Evaluation

EPA and Passing Metrics

nflfastR EPA Documentation Official documentation explaining how EPA is calculated. https://www.nflfastr.com/articles/beginners_guide.html

"Expected Points and Win Probability" by Brian Burke Foundational work on expected points models for football.

Ben Baldwin's QB Analysis (Twitter: @benloebaldwin) Regular analyses using EPA and other advanced metrics.

"Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE)" by ESPN Explanation of the CPOE methodology.

Next Gen Stats CPOE Documentation How AWS calculates expected completion probability. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary

"What CPOE Really Tells Us About QB Accuracy" (various articles) Interpretive guides for using CPOE in evaluation.

"Intended Air Yards vs Completed Air Yards" by Josh Hermsmeyer Deep dive into air yards metrics and what they reveal.

"Air Yards Model" by FantasyPoints How air yards relate to fantasy and real football production.

"Isolating Quarterback Play" by PFF Attempts to separate QB from surrounding players.

"Receiver Open Score" by Next Gen Stats How to measure receiver contribution to completions.

"How Much Do Receivers Matter?" (various research) Academic and industry approaches to cast adjustment.

"NFL Quarterback Aging Curves" by Football Outsiders Research on how QB performance changes with age.

"When Do QBs Peak?" by various analysts Studies on optimal QB age and expected decline.

"History of the Passer Rating" by Pro Football Reference Understanding the traditional passer rating formula.

"Problems with Passer Rating" by various Why modern analysts moved beyond traditional metrics.

QBR (ESPN) Methodology ESPN's proprietary Total QBR system explanation.

"Pressure Rate and QB Performance" by PFF How pressure affects quarterback metrics.

"Time to Throw Analysis" by Next Gen Stats Using tracking data to understand QB decision-making speed.

"Evaluating Quarterback Performance" (academic papers) Various statistical approaches to QB assessment.

"NFL Passing Model" research papers Academic models for expected passing outcomes.

"The Essential Smart Football" by Chris Brown Understanding passing concepts and scheme.

"Take Your Eye Off the Ball" by Pat Kirwan How to watch QBs and evaluate their play.

"The Games That Changed the Game" by Ron Jaworski Historical context on QB evolution.

Nate Tice Film Analysis Detailed video breakdowns of QB play.

Brett Kollmann (YouTube) Popular NFL analysis with QB evaluations.

Baldy Breakdowns (Twitter/YouTube) Former lineman's perspective on QB play.

nfl_data_py / nflfastR Primary source for play-by-play data with EPA. https://github.com/nflverse/nfl_data_py

Pro Football Reference Career statistics and traditional metrics. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

Next Gen Stats AWS-powered tracking data and metrics. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/

PFF Grades and advanced metrics (subscription). https://www.pff.com/

r/NFLstatheads (Reddit) Technical discussions of QB evaluation methods.

#NFLTwitter (Twitter/X) Real-time QB analysis and debate.

Establish the Run / Fantasy Analytics QB analysis from fantasy perspective (translates to real football).