Exercises: Fantasy Football Analytics

Section 1: Scoring and Point Calculations

Exercise 1: Fantasy Point Calculation

Player Statistics: | Stat | Value | |------|-------| | Pass Yards | 285 | | Pass TDs | 3 | | Interceptions | 1 | | Rush Yards | 28 | | Rush TDs | 0 |

Tasks: a) Calculate total fantasy points in standard scoring b) Calculate total fantasy points in 4-point passing TD scoring c) Calculate total fantasy points in 6-point passing TD scoring d) How much does the scoring system change QB value?

Exercise 2: PPR Impact Analysis

Two Players: - Player A: 60 receptions, 800 yards, 5 TDs - Player B: 35 receptions, 900 yards, 8 TDs

Tasks: a) Calculate fantasy points for both in standard scoring b) Calculate fantasy points for both in PPR scoring c) Which player is more valuable in each format? d) What is the "break-even" reception count where they're equal in PPR?

Exercise 3: Full Season Projection

Running Back Projected Stats: - Games: 17 - Carries/game: 18 - Yards/carry: 4.5 - Rush TDs: 10 - Receptions/game: 4 - Yards/reception: 7.5 - Receiving TDs: 2

Tasks: a) Calculate season rushing yards and points b) Calculate season receiving yards and points c) Calculate total PPR fantasy points d) Calculate total standard fantasy points

Section 2: VORP and Positional Value

Exercise 4: VORP Calculation

12-Team League Projections:

Tasks: a) Calculate VORP for Players A, B, C, and D b) Rank the four players by VORP c) Should you draft Player A (QB, 380 pts) or Player C (RB, 280 pts)? d) At what projection would Player B become more valuable than Player D?

Exercise 5: Positional Scarcity Analysis

Position Projections (Top 24):

Tasks: a) Calculate the dropoff from rank 1 to rank 12 for each position b) Calculate the dropoff from rank 12 to rank 24 c) Which position has the highest scarcity? d) At which round should you prioritize TE?

Exercise 6: Draft Value Analysis

Your league settings: - 12 teams - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX - Half-PPR scoring

Available at pick 8: - Elite WR: 290 projected points - Elite TE: 250 projected points - Solid RB: 230 projected points

Replacement levels: - WR25: 140 points - TE13: 80 points - RB37 (after FLEX): 90 points

Tasks: a) Calculate VORP for each option b) Which player provides the most value over replacement? c) How does FLEX eligibility affect RB replacement level? d) Make your draft recommendation with justification

Section 3: Projections and Variance

Exercise 7: Projection with Regression

Wide Receiver's Previous Season: - Targets: 140 - Receptions: 100 - Yards: 1,400 - TDs: 14 (10% TD rate vs 4% league average)

Tasks: a) Calculate the regressed TD rate (75% regression to mean) b) Project TDs using regressed rate c) Calculate the difference in fantasy points between raw and regressed projections d) Why is regression important for projections?

Exercise 8: Volume vs Efficiency Trade-off

Two Running Backs: - RB X: 280 carries, 4.0 YPC, 10 TDs - RB Y: 180 carries, 5.2 YPC, 8 TDs

Tasks: a) Calculate rushing yards and fantasy points for each b) Which RB is more valuable? c) If RB X's YPC increases to 4.3, how do values change? d) What is the "break-even" carry count for RB Y to match RB X?

Exercise 9: Variance Analysis

Player Weekly Scores (14 weeks): Player A: 18, 22, 15, 20, 24, 8, 19, 21, 16, 23, 17, 20, 19, 22 Player B: 12, 35, 8, 28, 5, 32, 10, 25, 15, 30, 6, 28, 12, 24

Tasks: a) Calculate mean and standard deviation for each player b) Calculate coefficient of variation (CV = std/mean) c) Calculate boom rate (games > 1.5× mean) and bust rate (games < 0.5× mean) d) Which player would you prefer if you're the underdog? The favorite?

Section 4: DFS Optimization

Exercise 10: Salary Optimization

Available Players:

Constraints: $50,000 cap, need 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE

Tasks: a) Calculate points per $1,000 salary for each player b) Build a lineup under the salary cap that maximizes projected points c) What is the total projection and remaining salary? d) Is the highest $/point player always the best choice? Why or why not?

Exercise 11: Ownership and Leverage

Tournament Situation: | Player | Projection | Ownership | |--------|------------|-----------| | WR A | 18.0 | 35% | | WR B | 17.5 | 12% | | WR C | 16.0 | 8% |

Tasks: a) Calculate leverage score for each (Projection / Ownership%) b) Which player provides the best tournament leverage? c) If WR B hits his ceiling (28 pts), what percentage of the field gains? d) How does ownership factor into GPP strategy?

Exercise 12: Correlation Stacking

Week 10 Game: High total (52.5), close spread

Available players from this game: - QB (home): $7,200, 21.0 proj - WR1 (home): $6,800, 16.5 proj - WR2 (home): $5,200, 12.0 proj - RB (away): $7,000, 18.0 proj - WR1 (away): $6,500, 15.5 proj

Tasks: a) Build a "bring-back" stack using QB + home WR + away WR b) Calculate the combined projection of your stack c) Why do shootout games favor stacking? d) What is the expected correlation boost for QB-WR stacks?

Section 5: Season-Long Strategy

Exercise 13: Draft Position Analysis

Snake Draft Position: Pick 4 of 12

First two rounds available players: - Pick 4: Elite RB (300 pts projected) - Pick 21: Choose from WR (240 pts) or RB (210 pts) - Pick 28: Best available likely ~200 pts

Tasks: a) Calculate the value loss of waiting at RB (pick 4 vs pick 28) b) Calculate the value loss of waiting at WR (pick 21 vs pick 28) c) Which position should you target at pick 4? d) How does pick position affect strategy?

Exercise 14: Waiver Wire Analysis

Current Roster RBs: - RB1: 15.0 PPG, 8 weeks remaining - RB2: 10.0 PPG, 8 weeks remaining

Waiver Target: - RB3: 11.5 PPG projected

Tasks: a) Calculate remaining season value for each player b) Should you add RB3? Who do you drop? c) What is the season value gained/lost? d) What if RB3's projection has high uncertainty (±3 PPG)?

Exercise 15: Trade Evaluation

Trade Offer: - You give: RB (18 PPG), WR (14 PPG) - You receive: RB (15 PPG), WR (12 PPG), WR (11 PPG)

Context: 6 weeks remaining, your WR depth is thin (only 3 WRs)

Tasks: a) Calculate total PPG given vs received b) Calculate season value (PPG × weeks) c) How does roster fit affect the evaluation? d) Would you accept this trade? Why or why not?

Section 6: Matchup Analysis

Exercise 16: Defense vs Position

Defense Rankings (Points Allowed to Position): | Defense | vs QB | vs RB | vs WR | vs TE | |---------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | Team A | 22.5 | 28.0 | 35.0 | 12.0 | | Team B | 18.0 | 22.0 | 30.0 | 8.0 | | League Avg | 20.0 | 25.0 | 32.0 | 10.0 |

Your Players: - QB (18.0 base) vs Team A - RB (14.0 base) vs Team B - WR (15.0 base) vs Team A - TE (10.0 base) vs Team B

Tasks: a) Calculate matchup factors for each position vs each defense b) Apply matchup adjustments to your player projections c) Which matchup provides the biggest boost? d) Which matchup is most concerning?

Exercise 17: Vegas-Adjusted Projections

Game Line: - Total: 48.5 - Home team -3.5 - Home implied: 26.0 - Away implied: 22.5

Your Players: - Home QB: 20.0 base projection - Away RB: 15.0 base projection

Tasks: a) Calculate total factor for each team (vs 23.0 average) b) Apply sensitivity adjustments (QB: 0.8, RB: 0.5) c) What are the Vegas-adjusted projections? d) Should the away RB be downgraded due to game script?

Section 7: Advanced Analysis

Exercise 18: Age Curve Analysis

Player Profile: - Position: RB - Age: 27 - Last 3 seasons: 280 pts, 300 pts, 260 pts - Peak age for RB: 25 - Decline rate: 5% per year past peak

Tasks: a) Calculate age-adjusted projection using weighted average b) Apply aging curve to projection c) What is the expected decline from age 27 to 28? d) How does this affect dynasty/keeper value?

Exercise 19: Playoff Schedule Optimization

Two Players at Same Position: - Player X: 15.0 PPG, playoff opponents ranked #25, #28, #30 vs position - Player Y: 14.0 PPG, playoff opponents ranked #5, #8, #12 vs position

Tasks: a) Estimate matchup adjustments for each player's playoff schedule b) Project playoff totals (3 weeks) for each player c) Which player is more valuable for the playoffs? d) How much is playoff schedule worth in draft capital?

Exercise 20: Complete Projection Model

Build a full projection for this player:

Historical Data: - 2022: 95 targets, 70 rec, 950 yards, 6 TDs - 2023: 130 targets, 100 rec, 1,300 yards, 10 TDs

Context: - New offensive coordinator (passing-heavy system) - Age: 26 (WR peak age) - Team added competition at WR

Tasks: a) Calculate weighted average of past seasons (50%/30%/20% if 3 years available) b) Apply opportunity changes (+10% targets from new system, -15% from competition) c) Apply efficiency regression (TD rate 7.7% → regressed rate) d) Calculate full PPR projection with confidence interval

Answer Key Guidance

Exercise 1:

a) Standard: 285×0.04 + 3×4 + (-1)×(-2) + 28×0.1 = 11.4 + 12 + 2 + 2.8 = 28.2 pts b) 4-point TD: Same as standard = 28.2 pts c) 6-point TD: 11.4 + 18 + 2 + 2.8 = 34.2 pts d) 6-point passing TDs add 6 points (21% increase for this game)

Exercise 4:

a) VORP calculations: - Player A: 380 - 260 = 120 - Player B: 320 - 260 = 60 - Player C: 280 - 120 = 160 - Player D: 200 - 120 = 80 b) Rank: C (160) > A (120) > D (80) > B (60) c) Draft Player C - higher VORP despite lower raw points d) Player B VORP > Player D when: 320 - 260 > 200 - 120 → Never (60 < 80)

Exercise 10:

Points per $1K: - QB A: 3.0, QB B: 3.0 - RB A: 2.5, RB B: 2.46, RB C: 2.5 - WR A: 2.5, WR B: 2.5, WR C: 2.55, WR D: 2.44 - TE A: 2.55, TE B: 2.5

Optimal lineup (one possibility): QB B ($6,000, 18.0), RB A ($8,000, 20.0), RB B ($6,500, 16.0), WR A ($7,000, 17.5), WR B ($6,000, 15.0), WR C ($5,500, 14.0), TE A ($5,500, 14.0) = $44,500, 114.5 pts

Exercise 17:

a) Home factor: 26.0/23.0 = 1.13; Away factor: 22.5/23.0 = 0.98 b) Home QB: 20.0 × (1 + (1.13-1) × 0.8) = 20.0 × 1.104 = 22.1 Away RB: 15.0 × (1 + (0.98-1) × 0.5) = 15.0 × 0.99 = 14.85 c) QB adjusted to 22.1, RB adjusted to 14.85 d) Yes, slight downgrade due to negative game script as underdog