Exercises: Defensive Analytics

Difficulty Levels

• Level 1 (Foundational): Basic defensive metric calculations
• Level 2 (Applied): Team-level defensive analysis
• Level 3 (Intermediate): Situational and split analysis
• Level 4 (Advanced): Opponent adjustment and attribution
• Level 5 (Expert): Comprehensive defensive evaluation

Section 1: Team Defensive Metrics (Level 1-2)

Exercise 1.1: EPA Allowed

Level 1 | Core Metric

Calculate EPA allowed for all teams: 1. Filter to regular plays (pass and run) 2. Calculate mean EPA allowed by defensive team 3. Rank teams from best (most negative) to worst 4. What is the range from best to worst?

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Exercise 1.2: Defensive Success Rate

Level 2 | Consistency

Calculate success rate allowed: 1. Define success as offense achieving EPA > 0 2. Calculate success rate allowed by team 3. Compare to EPA allowed - correlation? 4. Which teams limit both magnitude AND frequency?

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Exercise 1.3: Pass vs Run Defense

Level 2 | Split Analysis

Analyze pass and run defense separately: 1. Calculate pass EPA allowed by team 2. Calculate run EPA allowed by team 3. Identify pass defense specialists 4. Identify run defense specialists 5. Which defenses are balanced?

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Exercise 1.4: Explosive Play Prevention

Level 2 | Big Plays

Analyze explosive play prevention: 1. Define explosive pass (20+ yards) and run (10+ yards) 2. Calculate explosive rate allowed by team 3. Which teams prevent big plays best? 4. Correlation with overall defensive EPA?

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Exercise 1.5: Negative Play Generation

Level 2 | Disruption

Analyze ability to generate negative plays: 1. Calculate rate of plays for negative yards 2. Calculate rate of EPA < -0.5 plays 3. Which defenses are most disruptive? 4. Is this pass rush or run stuffing?

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Section 2: Pass Rush Analysis (Level 2-3)

Exercise 2.1: Sack Rate Analysis

Level 2 | Basic

Calculate defensive sack rate: 1. Calculate sacks per dropback by team 2. Rank defenses by sack rate 3. What is the league average? 4. How much variance exists?

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Exercise 2.2: Pressure Rate Estimation

Level 3 | Composite

Estimate pressure rate from PBP: 1. Define pressure as sack OR QB hit OR scramble 2. Calculate pressure rate by team 3. Compare to sack rate - what's the relationship? 4. Which teams have high pressure but low sacks?

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Exercise 2.3: Pass Rush Efficiency

Level 3 | Efficiency

Analyze pass rush impact on passing: 1. Calculate EPA on pressured vs clean plays 2. How much does pressure affect EPA? 3. Which defenses maximize pressure impact? 4. Which defenses generate pressure but don't capitalize?

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Exercise 2.4: Blitz Effectiveness

Level 3 | Scheme

Analyze blitz effectiveness (if data available): 1. Identify blitz plays (5+ pass rushers) 2. Compare sack rate on blitz vs non-blitz 3. Compare EPA allowed on blitz vs non-blitz 4. Which defenses blitz effectively?

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Exercise 2.5: Sack Rate Stability

Level 3 | Reliability

Test sack rate stability: 1. Split season into halves 2. Calculate sack rate for each half 3. What is the correlation? 4. How predictive is early-season sack rate?

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Section 3: Coverage Analysis (Level 2-3)

Exercise 3.1: Completion Percentage Allowed

Level 2 | Basic Coverage

Analyze completion percentage allowed: 1. Calculate comp % allowed (excluding sacks) 2. Calculate yards per target allowed 3. Rank teams by coverage metrics 4. Compare to passer rating allowed

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Exercise 3.2: Deep Pass Defense

Level 3 | High Value

Analyze defense against deep passes: 1. Define deep as 15+ air yards 2. Calculate completion % on deep passes 3. Calculate EPA allowed on deep passes 4. Which teams defend deep best?

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Exercise 3.3: YAC Allowed

Level 3 | Tackling

Analyze yards after catch allowed: 1. Calculate average YAC allowed 2. Calculate explosive YAC (15+) rate 3. Which teams limit YAC best? 4. Correlation with total yards allowed?

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Exercise 3.4: Air Yards vs YAC Balance

Level 3 | Decomposition

Decompose passing yards allowed: 1. Calculate air yards allowed per target 2. Calculate YAC allowed per completion 3. Which teams allow short passes but tackle well? 4. Which teams allow deep completions?

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Exercise 3.5: Target Quality

Level 3 | Context

Analyze quality of targets against defense: 1. Calculate average ADOT against each defense 2. Do good defenses face shorter throws? 3. How does this affect coverage metrics?

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Section 4: Run Defense (Level 2-3)

Exercise 4.1: Run Stuffing

Level 2 | Basic

Calculate defensive stuff rate: 1. Calculate rate of runs stopped at/behind LOS 2. Calculate TFL rate 3. Rank run-stuffing defenses 4. Compare to YPC allowed

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Exercise 4.2: Yards Per Carry Allowed

Level 2 | Traditional

Analyze YPC allowed: 1. Calculate YPC allowed by team 2. Calculate run success rate allowed 3. Compare to run EPA allowed 4. Which tells more?

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Exercise 4.3: Explosive Run Prevention

Level 3 | Big Plays

Analyze explosive run prevention: 1. Calculate 10+ yard run rate allowed 2. Calculate 20+ yard run rate allowed 3. Which teams prevent big runs best? 4. Correlation with overall run defense?

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Exercise 4.4: Run Direction Defense

Level 3 | Directional

Analyze run defense by direction: 1. Calculate YPC allowed left, middle, right 2. Which teams have directional weaknesses? 3. Does this relate to scheme or personnel?

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Exercise 4.5: Second Level Defense

Level 3 | Linebacker Play

Analyze defense at second level: 1. Calculate % of runs reaching 4+ yards 2. This proxy for second level failure 3. Which teams stop runs before linebackers? 4. Which have good linebacker play?

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Section 5: Situational Defense (Level 3-4)

Exercise 5.1: Third Down Defense

Level 3 | Critical

Analyze third down defense: 1. Calculate 3rd down conversion rate allowed 2. Split by distance (short, medium, long) 3. Calculate 3rd down EPA allowed 4. Which teams get off the field?

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Exercise 5.2: Red Zone Defense

Level 3 | Scoring

Analyze red zone defense: 1. Calculate TD rate allowed in red zone 2. Calculate red zone EPA allowed 3. Compare to overall defensive rank 4. Do some teams bend but not break?

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Exercise 5.3: Late and Close Defense

Level 4 | Clutch

Analyze clutch defense: 1. Filter to 4th quarter, within 8 points 2. Calculate EPA allowed in these situations 3. Compare to full-game metrics 4. Which teams step up when it matters?

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Exercise 5.4: First Down Defense

Level 3 | Setting Up

Analyze first down defense: 1. Calculate 1st down EPA allowed 2. Calculate average 1st down yards allowed 3. Setting up 2nd/3rd down matters 4. Which teams win on first down?

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Exercise 5.5: Goal Line Defense

Level 4 | Extreme

Analyze goal line defense: 1. Filter to inside the 5, goal to go 2. Calculate run and pass success rates 3. TD rate allowed 4. Which teams hold at the goal line?

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Section 6: Advanced Analysis (Level 4-5)

Exercise 6.1: Opponent Adjustment

Level 4 | Context

Adjust defensive metrics for opponents: 1. Calculate offensive quality faced 2. Create expected EPA based on opponents 3. Calculate opponent-adjusted defensive EPA 4. Which teams' rankings change most?

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Exercise 6.2: Turnover Analysis

Level 4 | Variance

Analyze turnover generation: 1. Calculate INT rate and fumble rate 2. Calculate EPA swing from turnovers 3. Correlation with overall defensive EPA? 4. How much is skill vs luck?

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Exercise 6.3: Game Script Analysis

Level 4 | Context

Analyze defense in different game scripts: 1. Split by score differential (leading, tied, trailing) 2. Calculate EPA allowed in each 3. How does game script affect defensive stats? 4. Which teams perform consistently regardless?

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Exercise 6.4: Defensive Composite Index

Level 5 | Comprehensive

Build a composite defensive rating: 1. Combine pass and run defense 2. Include situational metrics 3. Weight appropriately 4. Normalize to 0-100 scale

class DefensiveIndex:
    def __init__(self, pbp):
        pass

    def calculate_composite(self, team):
        pass

    def rank_all_teams(self):
        pass

Exercise 6.5: Complete Defensive Report

Level 5 | Capstone

Generate comprehensive defensive evaluation: 1. Select a team to analyze 2. Include all metric categories 3. Compare to league averages 4. Identify strengths and weaknesses 5. Make recommendations

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Submission Guidelines

For each exercise: 1. Include all code with comments 2. Provide visualizations where appropriate 3. Interpret findings with appropriate caveats 4. Acknowledge defensive metric limitations

Grading Rubric