Further Reading: Statistical Foundations for Football Analytics
Probability and Statistics Fundamentals
"Statistics" by Freedman, Pisani, and Purves The best introductory statistics textbook. Clear explanations with real examples. Essential foundation.
"The Art of Statistics" by David Spiegelhalter Modern, accessible introduction to statistical thinking with contemporary examples.
"Naked Statistics" by Charles Wheelan Engaging, non-technical introduction to statistical concepts.
"Probability Theory: The Logic of Science" by E.T. Jaynes Advanced but illuminating treatment of probability from a Bayesian perspective.
EPA and Win Probability Models
"Expected Points and EPA Explained" (nflfastR documentation) Official explanation of the EPA model used in nflfastR data. https://www.nflfastr.com/articles/nflfastR.html
"Improving NFL Win Probability" by Lock and Nettleton Academic paper on win probability modeling approaches.
Burke, B. (Advanced Football Analytics) Original work on expected points that influenced modern models.
"Building an NFL Win Probability Model" (Open Source Football) Step-by-step guide to building your own WP model.
Statistical Inference
"Statistical Inference" by Casella and Berger Graduate-level textbook. Comprehensive reference for statistical theory.
"An Introduction to Statistical Learning" by James, Witten, Hastie, Tibshirani Modern machine learning with statistical foundations. Free PDF available. https://www.statlearning.com/
"Computer Age Statistical Inference" by Efron and Hastie Modern perspective on inference from two statistical giants.
Bayesian Statistics
"Bayesian Data Analysis" by Gelman et al. The definitive Bayesian textbook. Challenging but rewarding.
"Statistical Rethinking" by Richard McElreath More accessible introduction to Bayesian methods with R examples.
"Think Bayes" by Allen Downey (free online) Practical introduction to Bayesian statistics with Python.
Regression and Modeling
"Regression Modeling Strategies" by Frank Harrell Comprehensive treatment of regression for real applications.
"Applied Predictive Modeling" by Kuhn and Johnson Practical guide to predictive modeling with R examples.
"Elements of Statistical Learning" by Hastie, Tibshirani, Friedman Advanced machine learning theory. Free PDF available.
Sports Analytics Statistics
"Analyzing Baseball Data with R" by Marchi, Albert, Baumer While baseball-focused, excellent model for sports statistics methodology.
"Basketball on Paper" by Dean Oliver Classic sports analytics book showing statistical reasoning in basketball.
"Mathletics" by Wayne Winston Covers statistical methods across multiple sports.
"Stumbling on Wins" by Berri and Schmidt Critical look at sports statistics and what actually predicts winning.
Hypothesis Testing and Experimental Design
"Design and Analysis of Experiments" by Montgomery Standard reference for experimental design.
"Mostly Harmless Econometrics" by Angrist and Pischke Practical econometric methods applicable to causal inference.
"Statistics Done Wrong" by Alex Reinhart (free online) Common statistical errors and how to avoid them.
Football-Specific Statistical Analysis
"The Hidden Game of Football" by Carroll, Palmer, Thorn Classic early analytics work on football metrics.
Ben Baldwin's work (Twitter: @benloebaldwin) Modern NFL analytics and EPA methodology discussions.
PFF Methodology Documentation Understanding Pro Football Focus grading and statistics.
"Football Outsiders Almanac" (annual) Season preview with advanced statistics and methodology explanations.
Python Statistical Libraries
SciPy Documentation (scipy.org) Statistical functions, hypothesis tests, distributions.
Statsmodels Documentation (statsmodels.org) Regression, time series, statistical models in Python.
scikit-learn User Guide Machine learning with clear statistical foundations.
PyMC Documentation (pymc.io) Bayesian modeling in Python.
Visualization of Statistical Results
"Fundamentals of Data Visualization" by Claus Wilke Modern guide to visualizing data effectively. Free online version.
"Visual Display of Quantitative Information" by Edward Tufte Classic work on visualization principles.
Online Courses
Khan Academy: Statistics and Probability Free, comprehensive introduction to statistics.
MIT OpenCourseWare: Introduction to Probability and Statistics Free university-level course materials.
Coursera: Statistics with R Specialization (Duke) Multiple courses covering regression, inference, and Bayesian statistics.
DataCamp: Statistical Thinking in Python Hands-on Python course for statistical analysis.
Academic Papers
"Expected Points and Win Probability" by Burke (various) Foundational papers on modern football analytics metrics.
"Predicting the Outcome of NFL Games" by various authors Academic approaches to game prediction and model validation.
NFL Big Data Bowl Papers Annual competition papers with cutting-edge methodology. https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/nfl-big-data-bowl-2024
Community Resources
r/NFLstatheads (Reddit) Discussion of NFL statistical methodology.
Analytics community on Twitter/X Follow researchers at NFL teams, ESPN, PFF for latest methods.
Sports Reference Blog Methodology explanations from a major data provider.