Bye Timing Multiplier:
- Early (Wk 4-5): 0.7x
- Standard (Wk 6-9): 1.0x
- Late (Wk 10-12): 1.2x
- Very late (Wk 13+): 1.4x
Short Week (Thursday) Effects
Road Team Rest
Penalty
Normal (Sun→Thu)
-1.5 pts
Very short (Mon→Thu)
-3.0 pts
Same as home
Neutral
Rest Differential Formula
Adjustment = (Home_Days - Away_Days) × 0.15 pts
Standard rest: 6 days
Post-bye rest: 13+ days
Short week: 3-4 days
Strength of Schedule
SOS Rating
Interpretation
Win Impact
+2.0+
Very hard
-1 to -2 wins
+0.5 to +2.0
Hard
-0.5 to -1 wins
-0.5 to +0.5
Average
Neutral
-2.0 to -0.5
Easy
+0.5 to +1 wins
Below -2.0
Very easy
+1 to +2 wins
Travel Adjustment
Per timezone: +0.2 pts to home team
West→East: Additional +0.15 pts
Combined max: ~0.8 pts for cross-country
Quick Decision Tree
Is team coming off bye?
├── Yes → +1.2 × timing multiplier
└── No → Check rest days
Is it Thursday Night?
├── Yes → Away team -1.5 (or -3.0 if Mon)
└── No → Standard rest calc
Timezone difference?
├── 3+ → +0.6 pts home advantage
├── 1-2 → +0.2-0.4 pts
└── 0 → No travel adjustment
Complete Schedule Adjustment
Total = Bye_Effect + Rest_Diff + Short_Week + Travel
Example:
- Home off bye: -1.2
- Away short week: -1.5
- 2 TZ travel: -0.4
- Total: -3.1 pts (favors home)
International Games
Factor
Adjustment
Both teams traveling
HFA ≈ 0
Each team penalty
-0.5 to -1.0 pts
No bye after
-0.5 next game
Key Insight
Schedule factors are known in advance and create measurable advantages of 2-4 points in extreme cases. Teams off bye gain ~1.2 points, while Thursday road teams after Monday games lose ~3 points. These adjustments compound with travel and are often underweighted by casual analysis. Always check the schedule before finalizing predictions.