Key Takeaways: Schedule and Rest Analysis

One-Page Reference

Bye Week Effects

Bye Timing Multiplier: - Early (Wk 4-5): 0.7x - Standard (Wk 6-9): 1.0x - Late (Wk 10-12): 1.2x - Very late (Wk 13+): 1.4x

Short Week (Thursday) Effects

Rest Differential Formula

Adjustment = (Home_Days - Away_Days) × 0.15 pts

Standard rest: 6 days
Post-bye rest: 13+ days
Short week: 3-4 days

Strength of Schedule

Travel Adjustment

Per timezone: +0.2 pts to home team
West→East: Additional +0.15 pts

Combined max: ~0.8 pts for cross-country

Quick Decision Tree

Is team coming off bye?
├── Yes → +1.2 × timing multiplier
└── No → Check rest days

Is it Thursday Night?
├── Yes → Away team -1.5 (or -3.0 if Mon)
└── No → Standard rest calc

Timezone difference?
├── 3+ → +0.6 pts home advantage
├── 1-2 → +0.2-0.4 pts
└── 0 → No travel adjustment

Complete Schedule Adjustment

Total = Bye_Effect + Rest_Diff + Short_Week + Travel

Example:
- Home off bye: -1.2
- Away short week: -1.5
- 2 TZ travel: -0.4
- Total: -3.1 pts (favors home)

International Games

Key Insight

Schedule factors are known in advance and create measurable advantages of 2-4 points in extreme cases. Teams off bye gain ~1.2 points, while Thursday road teams after Monday games lose ~3 points. These adjustments compound with travel and are often underweighted by casual analysis. Always check the schedule before finalizing predictions.