Key Takeaways: Team Building and Roster Construction

One-Page Reference

Core Concept

Roster Construction is the strategic allocation of limited resources (salary cap, draft picks) across positions to maximize winning potential within competitive windows.

The Salary Cap

Metric 2023 Value Notes
Salary Cap $224.8M Hard limit
Avg Growth ~7%/year Excluding COVID
Roster Size 53 players + practice squad
Avg per player ~$4.2M If distributed equally

Position Value Hierarchy

Premium Positions (Pay Top Dollar)

  1. Quarterback - 15-20% of cap for elite
  2. Edge Rusher - 8-12% of cap
  3. Left Tackle - 8-11% of cap
  4. Cornerback - 7-10% of cap

Value Positions (Draft or Value FA)

  1. Wide Receiver - Market inefficient, draft preferred
  2. Defensive Tackle - Important but replaceable
  3. Linebacker - Declining positional value
  4. Safety - Good value in FA market

Avoid Premium Spending

  1. Running Back - Short careers, high replacement level
  2. Tight End - Unless elite receiving threat

Draft Value Principles

Expected Value by Round

Round Hit Rate Surplus Value
1st 50-55% $15-25M over 4 years
2nd 35-40% $8-12M over 4 years
3rd 25-30% $4-6M over 4 years
4-7 15-20% $1-3M over 4 years

Key Formula

Surplus Value = Market Value - Rookie Contract Cost

Free Agency Economics

Market Inefficiencies

  • Buyers typically overpay by 15-25%
  • First-week signings worst value
  • Age 27-29 sweet spot for value
  • Avoid: 30+ RB, 32+ WR, injured history

When FA Makes Sense

  • Contending team filling specific need
  • Prove-it deals (1-year, incentive-laden)
  • Position premiums (QB, EDGE on short market)

The QB Dilemma

Scenario Cap Impact Roster Effect
**Elite QB ($45M)** | 20% of cap | $180M for 52 players
**Average QB ($25M)** | 11% of cap | $200M for 52 players
**Rookie QB ($5M)** | 2% of cap | $220M for 52 players

Rookie QB Window: 4 years to build elite roster around cheap QB

Competitive Windows

Window Phases

Phase Duration Strategy
Rebuilding 2-3 years Accumulate picks, avoid long contracts
Competitive 2-3 years Balanced draft/FA approach
Contending 2-4 years Trade picks for win-now players
Declining 1-2 years Transition or extend window

Key Factors

  • QB age and contract status
  • Core player contracts remaining
  • Draft capital available
  • Cap flexibility

Build vs Buy Decision

Factor Build (Draft) Buy (FA)
Timeline 2-3 year development Immediate impact
Cost Cheap (rookie deals) Expensive (market rate)
Risk Draft bust potential Overpay/decline risk
Control 4-5 years minimum 2-3 years typical

Roster Construction Rules

DO:

  • Build through the draft
  • Pay premium only for premium positions
  • Maintain 15-20% cap flexibility
  • Extend core players before FA
  • Target value FA (age 26-28)

DON'T:

  • Pay RBs on long-term deals
  • Sign 30+ players to 4+ year deals
  • Spend 50%+ on offense OR defense
  • Chase FA in first week
  • Mortgage future for non-QB players

Quick Calculations

Cost per WAR

efficiency = total_cap / total_war
# Good: <$8M per WAR
# Average: $8-12M per WAR
# Poor: >$12M per WAR

Draft Pick Value (Jimmy Johnson)

Pick 1: 3000 points
Pick 10: 1300 points
Pick 32: 590 points
Pick 64: 270 points

Roster Age Target

  • Average: 25-26 years
  • Under 26: 15+ players
  • Over 30: <8 players

Red Flags

Warning Sign Implication
QB > 18% of cap Must excel everywhere else
Dead money > 10% Poor contract management
Avg age > 27.5 Window closing
< $20M cap space Limited flexibility
< 6 draft picks Reduced talent pipeline

Remember

  1. Cap is a constraint - Every dollar matters
  2. Positions aren't equal - Pay for premium, draft the rest
  3. Timing matters - Windows open and close
  4. Draft > FA - For building sustainable success
  5. QB economics dominate - Most important roster decision