Key Takeaways: Situational Football

One-page reference for Chapter 14 concepts

Red Zone Efficiency

# Red zone = inside opponent's 20
rz_plays = pbp[pbp['yardline_100'] <= 20]

# TD rate (primary metric)
td_rate = touchdowns / red_zone_trips

# Points per trip
points_per_trip = (tds * 7 + fgs * 3) / trips

Red Zone Benchmarks

Metric Average Good Elite
TD Rate 55-58% 60-65% 65%+
Points/Trip 4.0-4.3 4.5-5.0 5.0+
Turnover Rate 5-7% 3-5% < 3%

Third Down Conversion

# Conversion = first down or touchdown
conversion_rate = conversions / third_down_attempts

# By distance
short = ydstogo <= 3   # ~65% league avg
medium = 4 <= ydstogo <= 6  # ~42% league avg
long = ydstogo >= 7    # ~28% league avg

Third Down Benchmarks

Distance Average Good Elite
Overall 38-42% 43-47% 48%+
Short (1-3) 62-68% 70-75% 76%+
Medium (4-6) 40-45% 48-52% 53%+
Long (7+) 25-30% 32-37% 38%+

Two-Minute Offense

# Two-minute situations
two_min = pbp[
    ((qtr == 2) & (seconds_remaining <= 120)) |
    ((qtr == 4) & (seconds_remaining <= 120))
]

# Key metrics
scoring_rate = scoring_drives / total_drives
two_min_epa = two_min_plays['epa'].mean()

Two-Minute Benchmarks

Metric Average Good Elite
Scoring Rate 35-40% 45-50% 55%+
EPA/Play 0.05-0.10 0.12-0.18 0.20+

Late and Close Games

# Late & close definition
late_close = pbp[
    (pbp['qtr'] >= 4) &
    (pbp['score_differential'].abs() <= 8)
]

# Compare to overall
late_close_diff = late_close_epa - overall_epa

Leverage Weighting

# Leverage = WP sensitivity
# Highest when WP ≈ 50%
leverage = 4 * wp * (1 - wp)

# Leverage-weighted EPA
weighted_epa = (epa * leverage).sum() / leverage.sum()

Goal-to-Go Situations

# Goal-to-go = inside 10
goal_to_go = pbp[
    (pbp['yardline_100'] <= 10) &
    (pbp['goal_to_go'] == 1)
]

# Goal line (1-2 yards)
goal_line = pbp[pbp['yardline_100'] <= 2]

Defensive Situational Metrics

# Red zone defense (lower = better)
rz_td_allowed_rate = tds_allowed / rz_trips_faced

# Third down defense (lower = better)
third_down_allowed_rate = conversions_allowed / third_downs_faced

Clutch Performance Analysis

# Year-to-year correlation test
# Research finding: r ≈ 0.05-0.15

# Interpretation
# Low correlation suggests "clutch" is mostly random
# Not a repeatable skill

Key Correlations

Metric Correlation with Wins
Red Zone TD Rate r ≈ 0.45-0.55
Third Down Rate r ≈ 0.50-0.60
Late/Close EPA r ≈ 0.35-0.45

Sample Size Concerns

Situation Plays/Season Reliability
Red Zone ~150-200 Moderate
Third Down ~180-220 Moderate
Two-Minute ~40-60 Low
Late & Close ~100-150 Moderate

Key Insights

  1. Red zone efficiency often driven by short-yardage ability
  2. Third down success depends heavily on avoiding 3rd & long
  3. Two-minute drills small sample, high variance
  4. Clutch performance largely not repeatable skill
  5. Situational excellence often reflects overall team quality

Preview: Chapter 15

Next: Home Field Advantage - quantifying playing at home.