Key Takeaways: Fantasy Football Analytics
One-Page Reference
Scoring Systems
| Category | Standard | PPR | Half-PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TD | 4 pts | 4 pts | 4 pts |
| Pass Yard | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Rush/Rec TD | 6 pts | 6 pts | 6 pts |
| Rush/Rec Yard | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Reception | 0 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Interception | -2 | -2 | -2 |
VORP (Value Over Replacement)
VORP = Player_Projection - Replacement_Level
Replacement Levels (12-team):
- QB: QB13 (~260 pts)
- RB: RB25 (~120 pts)
- WR: WR25 (~140 pts)
- TE: TE13 (~80 pts)
Key Insight: High-scoring QBs often have low VORP because replacement QBs also score well.
Positional Scarcity
| Position | Scarcity | Draft Priority |
|---|---|---|
| TE | Highest | Early if elite available |
| RB | High | Rounds 1-3 |
| WR | Moderate | Rounds 2-5 |
| QB | Lowest | Rounds 6+ viable |
Projection Formula
Volume × Efficiency = Fantasy Points
Projection = (Targets × YPT × 0.1) + (Carries × YPC × 0.1)
+ (TDs × 6) + (Receptions × PPR_value)
Regression Rates: - TD Rate: Regress 75% to mean - Catch Rate: Regress 40% to mean - Volume: Regress 20% to mean
Variance by Position
| Position | CV | Boom Rate | Bust Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 0.35 | 25% | 15% |
| RB1 | 0.45 | 30% | 20% |
| WR1 | 0.50 | 35% | 20% |
| TE | 0.70 | 20% | 40% |
DFS Quick Reference
Lineup Optimization:
Maximize: Σ(projection_i × selected_i)
Subject to: Σ(salary_i × selected_i) ≤ $50,000
Leverage Score:
Leverage = Projection / Ownership%
High leverage = Low ownership + High projection
Correlation Stacking: - QB + WR (same team): +0.3 correlation - RB + opposing DEF: Blowout stack - QB + opposing WR: Shootout stack
Season-Long Strategy
Draft Priority by Round:
Rounds 1-2: Elite RB or Kelce-tier TE
Rounds 3-4: WR1 or second RB
Rounds 5-6: Best available skill position
Rounds 7-9: QB, TE if not addressed
Rounds 10+: Upside fliers, handcuffs
Waiver Evaluation:
Add if: ROS_projection_new > ROS_projection_worst_at_position
Value = Weekly_improvement × Weeks_remaining
Matchup Adjustments
Adjusted_Projection = Base_Projection × Matchup_Factor
Matchup_Factor = Opponent_Points_Allowed / League_Average
| Matchup Quality | Factor |
|---|---|
| Favorable | 1.10+ |
| Neutral | 0.95-1.05 |
| Unfavorable | <0.95 |
Vegas Integration
Team_Total_Factor = Implied_Total / 23
Adjusted = Base × (1 + (Factor - 1) × Sensitivity)
Sensitivity by position:
- QB: 0.8
- WR: 0.6
- RB: 0.5
- TE: 0.5
Bankroll Management
Kelly Criterion (DFS):
Entry_Size = Bankroll × Kelly × Fraction
Cash games: Use 1/4 Kelly
Tournaments: Use 1/10 Kelly
Max single entry: 10% of bankroll
Key Decision Tree
Draft Decision:
├── Round 1-2: Highest VORP available
├── Round 3-5: Fill RB/WR needs
├── Round 6-9: QB if streaming not preferred
└── Round 10+: Ceiling-based selections
Start/Sit Decision:
├── Projection within 3 pts → Favor matchup
├── Clear projection gap → Start higher projection
└── Need ceiling → Choose high-variance option
DFS Contest Selection:
├── Cash games → Low variance, high floor
├── Tournaments → High variance, leverage plays
└── Contest rake > 15% → Avoid
Key Insight
Fantasy football rewards process over results in the long run. Analytical players build projections, understand positional value, manage variance appropriately, and avoid emotional decisions. A single week's outcome is noise; consistent edge comes from systematic advantages in valuation and risk management.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Ignoring VORP - Drafting QBs early when replacement QBs are adequate
- Chasing TDs - TD rates regress heavily; volume is more stable
- Ignoring Variance - Boom players when you're favored waste ceiling
- Overreacting Weekly - One-week samples are noise; trust projections
- Neglecting Bankroll - Proper sizing prevents ruin in DFS