Further Reading: Defensive Analytics
Foundational Concepts
Football Outsiders DVOA Defensive component of DVOA methodology. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
"The Hidden Game of Football" by Bob Carroll et al. Early analytical approaches to defense.
"Why Is Defense Hard to Measure?" by various analysts Discussions of the attribution challenge.
Team-Level Defense
"Defensive Efficiency" by Football Outsiders Team-level defensive metrics explained.
"EPA and Defensive Evaluation" by Ben Baldwin Using EPA for defensive analysis. https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/
"Defensive Success Rate" by Sharp Football Consistency-based defensive evaluation. https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/
Pass Rush Analytics
"Pressure vs Sacks" by various Why pressure rate matters more than sack totals.
"Pass Rush Productivity" by PFF Individual pass rusher evaluation methodology. https://www.pff.com/
"ESPN Pass Rush Win Rate" Tracking-based individual lineman metric. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/
Coverage Analytics
"Coverage Grading" by PFF Film-based individual coverage evaluation.
"Separation and Coverage Metrics" by Next Gen Stats Tracking data applications for coverage. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/
"Target Quality and Coverage Attribution" Adjusting coverage stats for receiver quality.
Run Defense
"Run Defense EPA" by analysts Modern approaches to run stopping evaluation.
"Gap Control and Run Fits" by coaches Scheme-based run defense evaluation.
"Stuff Rate Analysis" by Football Outsiders Traditional run defense metrics.
Turnover Analysis
"Turnover Luck and Regression" by Football Perspective The randomness of turnovers.
"Fumble Recovery Rate" by Brian Burke Why fumble recovery is nearly random.
"Are Interceptions Skill or Luck?" by analysts Year-to-year INT rate persistence research.
Individual Evaluation
PFF Defensive Grades Methodology for individual defenders. https://www.pff.com/
"Man Coverage vs Zone Coverage" by film analysts Scheme effects on individual stats.
Sports Info Solutions (SIS) Alternative charting and grading service.
Tracking Data
Next Gen Stats Defensive Metrics AWS-powered tracking applications. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/
"Coverage Win Rate" by ESPN Tracking-based coverage evaluation.
"Completion Probability Over Expected" How defenses affect expected completion rates.
Opponent Adjustment
"Schedule-Adjusted Defensive Stats" Importance of opponent context.
"DVOA Opponent Adjustment" by Football Outsiders Methodology for adjusting defensive metrics.
Game Script Effects
"Defensive Stats and Game Script" by analysts How leads affect defensive statistics.
"Pass Rate and Score Differential" Context for defensive play calling.
Situational Defense
"Third Down Defense Analysis" by Sharp Football Critical down evaluation.
"Red Zone Defensive Efficiency" Scoring prevention metrics.
"Late Game Defensive Performance" Clutch defense evaluation.
Academic Research
"Defensive Attribution in Team Sports" (papers) Statistical approaches to defensive credit.
"Expected Points and Defense" by researchers EPA-based defensive frameworks.
"Randomness in Football Turnovers" (academic) Statistical analysis of turnover variance.
Video and Film Analysis
"Reading Defensive Alignments" by coaches Pre-snap defensive evaluation.
Brett Kollmann YouTube Detailed defensive film breakdowns. https://www.youtube.com/user/BrettKollmann
"Coverage Recognition" by film analysts How to identify coverage schemes.
Data Sources
nfl_data_py / nflfastR Play-by-play data with defensive outcomes. https://github.com/nflverse/nfl_data_py
Pro Football Reference Basic defensive statistics. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
PFF Individual grades and advanced metrics (subscription). https://www.pff.com/
Next Gen Stats Tracking-based defensive metrics. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/
ESPN Stats & Info Win rates and pressure metrics.
Podcasts and Content
PFF NFL Podcast Regular defensive analysis.
The Athletic Football Show Analytical defensive coverage.
Move the Sticks (NFL Network) Scouting-based defensive evaluation.
Community Discussion
r/NFLstatheads (Reddit) Technical defensive metric discussions.
Twitter/X Analytics Community Defensive evaluation debates.
Football Outsiders Forums DVOA and methodology discussions.
Books
"Take Your Eye Off the Ball" by Pat Kirwan Understanding defensive schemes.
"The Essential Smart Football" by Chris B. Brown Tactical defensive analysis.
"Blood, Sweat, and Chalk" by Tim Layden History of defensive strategy.
Advanced Topics
"Machine Learning for Defensive Evaluation" AI applications in defense.
"Computer Vision and Coverage Analysis" Emerging tracking approaches.
"Expected Points Added and Defensive Attribution" Future directions in defensive analytics.