Further Reading: Pace and Play Calling
Fourth Down Decision Analysis
Ben Baldwin's 4th Down Calculator The definitive interactive tool for fourth down decisions. https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_down_calculator/
"When to Go For It" by Brian Burke Foundational expected value analysis of fourth down decisions. https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/
"The Case for Going For It" by Bill Barnwell ESPN analysis of fourth down conservatism costs.
Pass vs Rush Efficiency
"Pass Rate and Winning" by various analysts Analysis of the passing efficiency advantage.
"Why Teams Run Too Much" by researchers Game theory explanations for suboptimal rushing rates.
"The Death of the Running Back" by analysts How passing efficiency has devalued rushing.
Tempo and Pace
"Pace of Play Analysis" by Football Outsiders Methodology for measuring offensive tempo. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
"Does Tempo Matter?" by researchers Analysis of whether fast tempo improves efficiency.
"Hurry-Up Offense Effectiveness" by various Evaluation of no-huddle strategies.
Play Calling Philosophy
"Neutral Situations Analysis" by Ben Baldwin The importance of early down play calling.
"Game Script Effects" by analysts How score affects play-calling and evaluation.
"The Analytics of Play Selection" by researchers Optimal play calling under game theory.
Predictability and Tendencies
"Formation Tendencies" by coaches How defenses identify and exploit tells.
"Entropy in Play Calling" by statisticians Using information theory to measure predictability.
"Breaking Tendencies" by offensive coordinators Coaching perspective on avoiding predictability.
Academic Research
"Optimal Play Calling in the NFL" (papers) Academic models for play selection.
"Risk and Uncertainty in Football Decisions" by researchers Behavioral economics applied to coaching.
MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Annual collection of football decision papers. https://www.sloansportsconference.com/
Historical Context
"The Evolution of NFL Offenses" by researchers How passing rates have changed over decades.
"Rule Changes and Offensive Strategy" by analysts Impact of rule changes on play calling.
"The West Coast Offense Revolution" by historians How Bill Walsh changed passing philosophy.
Coaching Philosophy
"Go For It" by Kevin Kelley High school coach famous for never punting.
"Chip Kelly's Tempo Revolution" by journalists How Kelly brought tempo to the NFL.
"Sean McVay's Play Design" by analysts Modern play-calling innovation.
Data Sources
nfl_data_py / nflfastR Play-by-play data with play type and situation. https://github.com/nflverse/nfl_data_py
Pro Football Reference Historical play calling statistics. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
NFL Next Gen Stats Tempo and pre-snap motion data. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/
Tools and Calculators
Ben Baldwin's EPA Tools Weekly play-calling analysis. https://rbsdm.com/
Expected Points Calculator Field position value calculator.
Conversion Rate Models Fourth down probability estimators.
Video Content
Brett Kollmann Play Design Analysis Film breakdown of play-calling decisions. https://www.youtube.com/user/BrettKollmann
JT O'Sullivan's QB School Quarterback perspective on play selection. https://www.youtube.com/c/TheQBSchool
Secret Base Decision Analysis Accessible explanations of football decisions. https://www.youtube.com/c/SecretBase
Podcasts
The Athletic Football Show Regular discussions of play-calling trends.
PFF NFL Podcast Analytics-driven play selection analysis.
Move the Sticks NFL Network draft/strategy podcast.
Books
"Take Your Eye Off the Ball" by Pat Kirwan Understanding play-calling from a coach's view.
"The Essential Smart Football" by Chris B. Brown Strategic context for offensive philosophy.
"Football Intelligence" by various Decision-making in football context.
Coaching Resources
"The Score Takes Care of Itself" by Bill Walsh Leadership and strategy philosophy.
Modern NFL Coaching Clinics Annual coaching education events.
American Football Coaches Association Professional development resources. https://www.afca.com/
Advanced Topics
"Bayesian Decision Making in Football" by researchers Probabilistic approaches to play calling.
"Machine Learning for Play Prediction" by data scientists Using ML to predict play types.
"Game Theory and Football Strategy" by academics Formal models of strategic interaction.
Twitter/X Analytics Community
@benbbaldwin Weekly pace and play-calling analysis.
@SethWalder ESPN analytics correspondent.
@SharpFootball Warren Sharp's betting/analytics insights.
@JoeBanner13 Former NFL executive on strategy.
Betting and DFS Applications
"Pace and Totals" by sharp bettors How pace affects over/under betting.
"Play Calling Trends for DFS" by analysts Fantasy implications of play selection.
"In-Game Decision Impact on Spreads" by bettors How coaching decisions affect outcomes.
Team-Specific Analysis
The Athletic Team Sites In-depth play-calling analysis by team.
SB Nation Team Blogs Fan community analysis of play selection.
Team Analytics Departments (anonymous) Occasional insights from front offices.
Situational Analysis
"Red Zone Play Calling" by analysts Decision-making inside the 20.
"Two-Minute Drill Optimization" by researchers Tempo management in closing drives.
"Clock Management" by statisticians When to run vs when to maximize plays.