Key Takeaways: Pace and Play Calling

One-page reference for Chapter 13 concepts

Pace Metrics

# Plays per game
plays_per_game = total_plays / games_played

# Seconds per play (within drives)
seconds_per_play = (prev_clock - current_clock).mean()

# Neutral pace (close games, early downs)
neutral_pace = neutral_plays / games

Pace Benchmarks

Pass Rate Metrics

# Overall pass rate
pass_rate = passes / (passes + rushes)

# Neutral pass rate (key metric)
neutral_pass = neutral_passes / neutral_plays
# Neutral = 1st/2nd down, score ±7, WP 30-70%

# Early down pass rate
early_down_pass = early_passes / early_plays

League Pass Rate Context

Pass vs Rush Efficiency

# Typical league values
pass_epa = +0.05  # Positive on average
rush_epa = -0.03  # Negative on average
pass_premium = pass_epa - rush_epa  # ~0.08

Key insight: Passing is more efficient, but has higher variance.

Game Script Effects

Fourth Down Decision Framework

# Expected value of going for it
ev_go = (conv_prob * ep_success) + ((1 - conv_prob) * ep_failure)

# Expected value of field goal
ev_fg = (fg_prob * 3) + ((1 - fg_prob) * ep_miss)

# Expected value of punt
ev_punt = -ep_at_opponent_position

Fourth Down Conversion Rates

Predictability Analysis

# Shannon entropy (higher = less predictable)
entropy = -p * log2(p) - (1-p) * log2(1-p)

# Maximum entropy = 1.0 (50/50 pass/run)
# Low entropy = predictable tendencies

Situational Pass Rates

Key Correlations

Common Inefficiencies

1. Too conservative on 4th down - Most teams punt too often
2. Under-passing early - 1st down pass rates often too low
3. Over-running when ahead - Leading teams run too much
4. Predictable tendencies - Formation-based tells

Formation Tendency Analysis

# Pass rate by formation
formation_pass_rate = (
    plays.groupby('formation')
    .apply(lambda x: (x['play_type'] == 'pass').mean())
)

# Identify tell formations
tells = formation_pass_rate[
    (formation_pass_rate > 0.75) |
    (formation_pass_rate < 0.25)
]

Practical Applications

Key Insights

1. Neutral pass rate isolates true offensive philosophy
2. Passing is more efficient but higher variance than rushing
3. Game script explains most pass rate variation
4. 4th down analytics identify conservative coaching
5. Predictability can be measured and exploited

Preview: Chapter 14

Next: Situational Football - red zone, third downs, two-minute drills, and critical game situations.