Further Reading: Strength of Schedule
Academic Research
"Rating College Football Teams" by Colley The original Colley Matrix paper, used in BCS rankings. Mathematical approach to team ratings that handles circularity.
"Ranking Sports Teams: A Linear Algebra Approach" by Keener Mathematical framework for ranking with incomplete information.
"The Optimal Strategy for Ranking Sports Teams" by Langville & Meyer Comprehensive review of ranking methods including SOS considerations.
NFL-Specific Resources
Pro Football Reference - Strength of Schedule Official NFL SOS calculations and historical data. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
Football Outsiders - DVOA Opponent Adjustments How FO adjusts their efficiency metrics for opponent quality. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/
FiveThirtyEight - NFL Elo Methodology How Elo ratings implicitly account for schedule strength. https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/
Ranking and Rating Systems
"Who's #1?" by Langville and Meyer Comprehensive book on sports ranking methods, including SOS.
"Massey Ratings" by Kenneth Massey Popular college football rating system with SOS components. https://masseyratings.com/
"Sagarin Ratings" Jeff Sagarin's rating system used by USA Today.
Statistical Methods
"The Hidden Game of Football" by Carroll, Palmer & Thorn Classic text on football analytics including schedule considerations.
"Mathletics" by Wayne Winston Sports analytics overview with schedule strength sections.
"Analyzing Baseball Data with R" (applicable concepts) Statistical methods transferable to football schedule analysis.
NFL Scheduling
"NFL Scheduling: A Behind-the-Scenes Look" How the NFL creates schedules, affecting SOS patterns.
"The Evolution of NFL Scheduling" Historical changes in NFL scheduling formulas.
"17-Game Season Impact on SOS" Analysis of how expanded season affects schedule strength.
College Football Context
"The BCS Controversy" by various authors How SOS factored into college football rankings.
"College Football Playoff Selection Process" Current committee approach to schedule evaluation.
"Comparing SOS Across Conferences" Methods for inter-conference strength comparison.
Prediction Markets
"Sharp Football Betting and SOS" How betting markets incorporate schedule difficulty.
"Line Movement and Schedule Factors" When SOS causes line movement.
"Futures Pricing and Remaining SOS" How books adjust futures based on upcoming opponents.
Data Sources
nfl_data_py / nflfastR Python/R packages for NFL schedule and game data. https://github.com/nflverse/nfl_data_py
ESPN API Schedule and standings data via API.
NFL.com Schedule Data Official source for schedule information.
Mathematical Background
"Linear Algebra and Its Applications" by Strang Foundation for understanding matrix-based ranking methods.
"Introduction to Probability" by Grinstead & Snell Probability concepts underlying SOS calculations.
"Regression Analysis" by Montgomery Statistical methods for rating regression.
Software and Tools
Python: pandas, numpy, scipy Core libraries for SOS calculations.
R: nflfastR, tidyverse R ecosystem for NFL analysis.
SQL Approaches Database queries for schedule analysis.
Historical Analysis
"NFL Schedule Trends" by analysts Long-term patterns in schedule difficulty.
"Expansion and Realignment Effects on SOS" How league changes affected schedule patterns.
"Super Bowl Winner Schedule Analysis" Did champions face hard or easy paths?
Division and Conference Analysis
"The Toughest Division in NFL History" Historical analysis of division strength.
"AFC vs NFC Strength Trends" Conference-level SOS patterns over time.
"Intra-Division Scheduling Effects" How playing rivals twice affects SOS.
Advanced Topics
"Dynamic SOS Models" Models where team strength changes during season.
"Bayesian Approaches to Schedule Evaluation" Probabilistic methods for SOS.
"Machine Learning for Opponent Adjustment" Modern ML approaches to schedule analysis.
Visualization
"Visualizing Schedule Difficulty" Effective charts for SOS communication.
"Network Analysis of NFL Schedules" Graph-based schedule visualization.
"Interactive SOS Dashboards" Building dynamic SOS exploration tools.
Related Concepts
"Pythagorean Expectation in Football" Foundation for Pythagorean SOS.
"Power Ratings Explained" Understanding ratings used in rating-based SOS.
"Home Field Advantage and Schedule" How HFA interacts with SOS.
Podcasts
The Athletic Football Show Regular SOS discussions during season.
PFF NFL Podcast Data-driven schedule analysis.
Sharp Football Podcast Betting perspective on schedule difficulty.
Blogs and Websites
Football Outsiders https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ Regular SOS analysis and opponent adjustments.
The Athletic https://theathletic.com/ In-depth schedule analysis pieces.
FiveThirtyEight Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/ Quantitative approach to schedule evaluation.
Video Content
NFL Network Schedule Analysis TV coverage of schedule strength.
YouTube Analytics Channels Various channels covering SOS concepts.
Academic Conferences
MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Presentations on ranking and rating methods.
NESSIS (New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports) Academic sports statistics research.
Key Papers to Read
- Colley's "Rating College Football Teams" - foundational matrix method
- Massey's original rating paper - least squares approach
- Keener's "Ranking Sports Teams" - linear algebra framework
- Winston's work on sports forecasting - practical applications
- Football Outsiders' DVOA methodology - opponent adjustments
These resources provide depth for understanding both the theory and practice of strength of schedule analysis in football.