Exercises: Draft Analysis

Section 1: Production Analysis

Exercise 1: Conference Adjustment

Two QB Prospects: - QB A: 3,800 yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs at SEC school - QB B: 4,200 yards, 38 TDs, 6 INTs at AAC school

Conference factors: SEC = 1.15, AAC = 0.90

Tasks: a) Calculate conference-adjusted passing yards for each b) Calculate conference-adjusted TD:INT ratios c) Which QB has better adjusted production? d) What other factors would you consider?

Exercise 2: Dominator Rating

WR Prospect Stats: - Player receiving: 1,200 yards, 12 TDs - Team total receiving: 3,200 yards, 28 TDs

Tasks: a) Calculate yards share b) Calculate TD share c) Calculate Dominator Rating d) Interpret the result using thresholds

Exercise 3: Breakout Age Analysis

WR Prospect Production by Season: | Season | Age | Yards | TDs | Production Percentile | |--------|-----|-------|-----|----------------------| | 2021 | 18.5 | 450 | 3 | 45th | | 2022 | 19.5 | 950 | 8 | 75th | | 2023 | 20.5 | 1,400 | 14 | 95th |

Tasks: a) At what age did this player break out (80th percentile threshold)? b) How does this compare to elite WR prospects? c) What does the production trajectory suggest? d) Calculate year-over-year improvement rates

Exercise 4: Yards Per Route Run

Two WR Prospects (2023 season): - WR A: 1,100 yards on 480 routes run - WR B: 950 yards on 350 routes run

Tasks: a) Calculate YPRR for each b) Which metric is more predictive: total yards or YPRR? c) What contextual factors might explain the difference in routes? d) Project NFL production if each runs 400 routes

Section 2: Combine Analysis

Exercise 5: Speed Score Calculation

RB Prospect Combine Results: - Weight: 215 lbs - 40-yard dash: 4.42 seconds

Tasks: a) Calculate Speed Score using formula: (Weight × 200) / (40)^4 b) Compare to elite threshold (>105) c) How would the score change at 225 lbs? d) At what weight would a 4.50 40-time equal this score?

Exercise 6: Athletic Profile Comparison

Two CB Prospects:

Tasks: a) Which prospect is more athletic overall? b) Calculate composite athleticism score (average of percentiles) c) Identify each prospect's athletic strengths/weaknesses d) Which profile is better for a press-man corner?

Exercise 7: Height-Adjusted Speed

Tall WR Prospect: - Height: 6'4" (76 inches) - 40-yard: 4.52 seconds

Expected penalty: +0.03 seconds per inch above 72"

Tasks: a) Calculate expected height penalty b) Calculate height-adjusted 40 time c) How does this change the prospect's speed evaluation? d) Compare to a 6'0" receiver running 4.45

Exercise 8: RAS Calculation

TE Prospect vs Historical Data:

Tasks: a) Calculate z-score for each metric b) Convert z-scores to percentiles c) Calculate average percentile (RAS base) d) Convert to 0-10 RAS scale

Section 3: Position-Specific Models

Exercise 9: QB Evaluation

QB Prospect Data: - Adjusted Completion %: 67.5% - TD:INT Ratio: 3.5 - Yards per Attempt: 8.8 - 40-yard dash: 4.72 - Conference: Big Ten (factor: 1.10) - Age at draft: 21.5

Model Weights: Production 50%, Athleticism 20%, Context 30%

Tasks: a) Score production metrics (0-100 scale) b) Score athleticism (mobility) c) Score contextual factors d) Calculate composite and projection tier

Exercise 10: WR Archetype Classification

Determine archetype for each prospect:

Tasks: a) Classify each prospect's archetype b) Identify NFL role projection for each c) Which archetype has highest bust rate? d) Which provides most value in PPR fantasy?

Exercise 11: RB Receiving Evaluation

Two RB Prospects: - RB A: 35 targets, 28 catches, 285 yards (power back) - RB B: 65 targets, 55 catches, 520 yards (scat back)

Tasks: a) Calculate catch rate for each b) Calculate yards per reception c) Score receiving ability (0-100) d) Project three-down potential for each

Section 4: Draft Value

Exercise 12: Draft Pick Value Comparison

Trade Scenario: - Team gives: Pick 18 - Team receives: Picks 35, 70

Pick values (approximate): - Pick 18: 900 points - Pick 35: 460 points - Pick 70: 200 points

Tasks: a) Calculate value of picks being given b) Calculate value of picks being received c) Is this trade fair? d) What additional pick would balance it?

Exercise 13: Position Value in Draft

Two prospects with equal grades: - QB: 78 composite score - RB: 78 composite score

Position premiums: QB = 1.3x, RB = 0.85x

Tasks: a) Calculate position-adjusted scores b) What draft range does each warrant? c) How many picks apart should they go? d) Why do QBs command premiums?

Exercise 14: Expected Value Calculation

Historical data for picks 15-25 at WR: - 40 players drafted - 22 became starters (32+ starts) - 6 made Pro Bowl - 8 busted (career AV < 10) - Average career AV: 32

Tasks: a) Calculate starter probability b) Calculate bust probability c) Calculate Pro Bowl probability d) Is WR at pick 20 good value?

Section 5: Model Building

Exercise 15: Multi-Factor Prospect Model

Build evaluation for WR prospect:

Production Metrics: - YPRR: 2.85 - Contested catch rate: 58% - Drop rate: 5% - Dominator: 32% - Breakout age: 19.8

Athletic Metrics: - 40-yard: 4.48 - Vertical: 37" - 3-cone: 6.88 - Broad: 125"

Tasks: a) Score production (0-100) using provided formula b) Score athleticism (0-100) c) Score profile metrics (0-100) d) Calculate composite (40/30/30 weighting) e) Determine projection tier

Exercise 16: Comparable Player Identification

Prospect Profile: - Position: WR - Height: 6'0", Weight: 198 - 40: 4.42, Vertical: 38" - YPRR: 2.95 - Breakout Age: 19.2 - Dominator: 35%

Find comparable by matching: - Size within 2" height, 10 lbs weight - Speed within 0.05s - Similar production profile

Tasks: a) List characteristics that define this profile b) Name 2-3 possible NFL comparables c) What does the comparable set predict for NFL success? d) What are the risks even with elite profile?

Exercise 17: Conference Adjustment Deep Dive

QB prospects from different conferences:

Conference factors: SEC 1.15, Big 12 1.00, MAC 0.80

Tasks: a) Adjust all metrics using conference factors b) Re-rank the prospects after adjustment c) Does the ranking change significantly? d) What else should you investigate about QB C?

Section 6: Draft Strategy

Exercise 18: Best Player Available vs Need

Team Context: - Needs: WR, EDGE - Pick: 15th overall

Available Prospects: - WR A: 82 grade (best WR available) - EDGE A: 78 grade (best EDGE available) - OT A: 85 grade (best overall, not a need)

Tasks: a) Rank by pure grade b) Apply positional need (how much value does filling need provide?) c) Calculate expected 5-year value for each d) Which pick maximizes team value?

Exercise 19: Trade-Down Analysis

Scenario: - Your pick: 8th overall - Target: WR with 80 grade - Projection: WR will be available at pick 15

Trade offer: Give pick 8, receive picks 15 + 48

Tasks: a) Calculate pick value gained/lost b) What is probability WR is still available at 15? c) Calculate expected value of trade d) What factors would change your decision?

Exercise 20: Complete Draft Board

Create rankings for this mini-class:

Tasks: a) Apply position premiums (QB 1.3, EDGE 1.2, RB 0.85) b) Adjust for age/breakout concerns c) Create final ranking 1-6 d) Estimate draft range for each

Answer Key Guidance

Exercise 1:

a) QB A: 3,800 × 1.15 = 4,370 adj yards QB B: 4,200 × 0.90 = 3,780 adj yards b) TD:INT already ratios; A: 4.0, B: 6.3 → Adjust by same factors: A: 4.0 × 1.15 = 4.6; B: 6.3 × 0.90 = 5.7 c) QB A has better adjusted production despite lower raw numbers d) Competition level, scheme, supporting cast, sample size

Exercise 5:

a) Speed Score = (215 × 200) / (4.42)^4 = 43,000 / 381.9 = 112.6 b) 112.6 > 105 = Elite c) At 225 lbs: (225 × 200) / (4.42)^4 = 117.8 d) Solve: (W × 200) / (4.50)^4 = 112.6 → W = 231 lbs

Exercise 12:

a) Giving: 900 points b) Receiving: 460 + 200 = 660 points c) Not fair - team loses 240 points of value d) Need ~240 more points ≈ Pick 90 (100 pts) + Pick 120 (60 pts) or Pick 80 alone (~180 pts)

Exercise 15:

a) Production: YPRR score (85) + Contested (70) + Drop (90) = 81.7 b) Athleticism: 40 (75) + Vert (65) + 3-cone (65) + Broad (70) = 68.8 c) Profile: Breakout (90) + Dominator (95) = 92.5 d) Composite: 81.7×0.4 + 68.8×0.3 + 92.5×0.3 = 32.7 + 20.6 + 27.8 = 81.1 e) 81.1 = Quality Starter projection, Round 1 range