Quiz: Strength of Schedule

Question 1

What does Strength of Schedule (SOS) primarily measure?

A) A team's overall record B) The quality of opponents a team has faced C) A team's point differential D) The number of games played

Question 2

If Team A has an SOS of 0.540 and Team B has an SOS of 0.460, which statement is true?

A) Team A has faced harder opponents B) Team B has faced harder opponents C) Both teams faced equally difficult schedules D) SOS cannot be compared between teams

Question 3

The "circularity problem" in SOS calculation refers to:

A) Teams playing the same opponents multiple times B) The schedule repeating each year C) Opponent quality depending on games against other opponents, including you D) Division games being counted twice

Question 4

Second-order SOS incorporates:

A) Only your opponents' records B) Your opponents' opponents' records C) Three levels of opponent analysis D) Only head-to-head results

Question 5

The NFL's official SOS formula weights first-order and second-order SOS as:

A) 50% / 50% B) 67% / 33% C) 75% / 25% D) 100% / 0%

Question 6

Why should head-to-head games be excluded when calculating opponent win percentage for SOS?

A) They don't count in the standings B) To reduce circular dependency C) They're less important than other games D) League rules require it

Question 7

Team X finished 10-7 with SOS = 0.520. Team Y finished 10-7 with SOS = 0.480. When comparing these teams:

A) They are exactly equal B) Team X is likely better C) Team Y is likely better D) SOS doesn't matter for same-record teams

Question 8

What is a typical range for NFL SOS values?

A) 0.00 to 1.00 B) 0.30 to 0.70 C) 0.44 to 0.56 D) 0.49 to 0.51

Question 9

For draft order tiebreakers among teams with the same record, which team picks earlier?

A) Higher SOS B) Lower SOS C) Random selection D) Alphabetical order

Question 10

Power rating-based SOS differs from simple SOS by:

A) Using sophisticated team quality measures instead of win percentage B) Only counting division games C) Ignoring away games D) Weighting recent games more

Question 11

Calculate the simple SOS: Team A played opponents with records of 10-7, 8-9, 12-5, and 6-11.

A) 0.471 B) 0.500 C) 0.529 D) 0.558

Question 12

"Future SOS" is most useful for:

A) Evaluating a team's current record B) Historical analysis C) Playoff projections and predictions D) Draft position calculation

Question 13

Division games represent approximately what percentage of an NFL team's schedule?

A) 20% B) 35% C) 50% D) 65%

Question 14

The Colley Matrix method addresses SOS circularity by:

A) Ignoring some games B) Using linear algebra to solve simultaneous equations C) Only using home games D) Averaging multiple seasons

Question 15

If a team's remaining SOS is 0.55 and their past SOS was 0.48, their schedule is:

A) Getting easier B) Getting harder C) Staying the same D) Cannot be determined

Question 16

SOS-adjusted wins convert raw wins to:

A) Playoff wins B) Wins against average competition C) Home wins only D) Division wins

Question 17

Using the adjustment formula, if actual_wins = 9, SOS = 0.54, and games = 17: adjusted = actual + (SOS - 0.5) × 16 × games / 100

A) 8.1 B) 9.0 C) 10.1 D) 11.2

Question 18

Pythagorean SOS uses which metric to measure opponent quality?

A) Win percentage B) Points scored and allowed C) Turnover differential D) Yards per game

Question 19

A team in a strong division will typically have:

A) Higher SOS due to playing strong teams twice B) Lower SOS due to familiarity C) Average SOS D) SOS unaffected by division

Question 20

When building a prediction model, past SOS should be used to:

A) Predict future games directly B) Adjust team ratings for schedule difficulty C) Ignore opponent quality D) Only predict division games

Answer Key

  1. B - SOS measures the quality of opponents a team has faced, typically expressed as opponent average win percentage.

  2. A - Higher SOS (0.540) means Team A's opponents had better records on average than Team B's opponents (0.460).

  3. C - The circularity problem occurs because to calculate opponent quality, you need their records, which depend on their opponents' quality, creating circular dependencies.

  4. B - Second-order SOS incorporates your opponents' opponents' records, providing a more stable measure that reduces circularity.

  5. B - The NFL weights first-order SOS at 67% and second-order at 33% for official tiebreaker calculations.

  6. B - Excluding head-to-head games reduces circular dependency where your own performance affects your opponent's record which then affects your SOS.

  7. B - With the same record but harder schedule (higher SOS), Team X demonstrated better performance against tougher competition.

  8. C - NFL SOS typically ranges from about 0.44 to 0.56, as schedules are relatively balanced.

  9. B - Lower SOS picks earlier among same-record teams, reasoning that the team with easier schedule had less excuse for poor record.

  10. A - Power rating-based SOS uses sophisticated team quality measures (like points above average) instead of simple win percentage.

  11. C - (10/17 + 8/17 + 12/17 + 6/11) ÷ 4 = (0.588 + 0.471 + 0.706 + 0.353) ÷ 4 = 0.529

  12. C - Future SOS is most valuable for projecting how teams will finish the season and playoff scenarios.

  13. B - Division games (6 games against 3 division rivals) represent about 35% of the 17-game schedule.

  14. B - The Colley Matrix uses linear algebra to solve the system of equations representing all team interactions simultaneously.

  15. B - Remaining SOS (0.55) is higher than past SOS (0.48), meaning the schedule is getting harder.

  16. B - SOS-adjusted wins convert raw wins to what the team would have achieved against league-average competition.

  17. C - 9 + (0.54 - 0.50) × 16 × 17 / 100 = 9 + 0.04 × 2.72 = 9 + 1.09 ≈ 10.1

  18. B - Pythagorean SOS uses points scored and allowed to calculate expected win percentage, which better reflects underlying team quality.

  19. A - Teams in strong divisions face tough opponents in six guaranteed division games, inflating their SOS.

  20. B - Past SOS helps adjust team ratings to account for whether a team's record was achieved against easy or difficult competition.

Scoring Guide

  • 18-20: Excellent - Ready for advanced SOS modeling
  • 15-17: Good - Solid understanding of SOS concepts
  • 12-14: Satisfactory - Review calculation methods
  • Below 12: Needs Review - Revisit chapter material