Quiz: Injuries and Their Impact

Test your understanding of injury analysis concepts.

Multiple Choice Questions

Question 1

Which position has the highest impact on team performance when injured?

A) Wide Receiver #1 B) Quarterback C) Edge Rusher D) Left Tackle

Question 2

What is the approximate historical play rate for players listed as "Questionable"?

A) 20-30% B) 40-60% C) 70-80% D) 90-95%

Question 3

When calculating injury impact, what is the key value to measure?

A) Player's salary B) Player's draft position C) Player's value over their backup D) Player's career statistics

Question 4

An elite quarterback being replaced by an average backup typically impacts the spread by:

A) 1-2 points B) 2-3 points C) 4-7 points D) 8-10 points

Question 5

What does "compound effect" refer to in injury analysis?

A) Injuries that happen during games B) Non-linear impact when multiple players at same position are injured C) Long-term effects of injuries D) Injuries affecting multiple games

Question 6

Which practice pattern suggests the highest likelihood of playing?

A) DNP - DNP - Limited B) Limited - Limited - Limited C) Full - Full - Full D) DNP - Limited - Full

Question 7

When a player is "Doubtful," approximately what percentage miss the game?

A) 25% B) 50% C) 75% D) 95%

Question 8

How should you adjust a player's expected value in their first game back from a soft tissue injury?

A) Full value (100%) B) 80-85% of normal value C) 50-60% of normal value D) No adjustment needed

Question 9

Why is backup quality as important as starter quality in injury analysis?

A) Backups play more snaps B) The impact is starter value MINUS backup value C) Backups are always underrated D) Teams hide backup abilities

Question 10

A team has their starting LT and LG both out. What compound multiplier should be applied?

A) 1.0x (no compound effect) B) 1.15x C) 1.30x D) 2.0x

Question 11

When should you widen your confidence interval for a game prediction?

A) When a star player is definitely out B) When there are multiple game-time decisions C) When the backup is experienced D) When the team is favored

Question 12

What percentage of games are typically decided by injuries?

A) 5-10% B) 15-25% C) 30-40% D) Impossible to quantify

Question 13

Which factor LEAST affects injury impact?

A) Position of the injured player B) Quality of the backup C) Jersey number of the player D) Scheme dependence on the player

Question 14

How do betting markets typically respond to major QB injury news?

A) Lines don't change B) Lines move 1-2 points C) Lines move 3-5 points D) Lines are taken off the board

Question 15

When analyzing in-game injuries, which factor is MOST important?

A) The player's salary B) Time remaining in the game C) The player's age D) The team's record

Question 16

What is the primary purpose of tracking Closing Line Value (CLV) for injury-related bets?

A) To determine final scores B) To measure if you're capturing value before market fully prices injuries C) To calculate player statistics D) To predict future injuries

Question 17

A "quality backup" quarterback is one who:

A) Was drafted in the first round B) Has starting experience and proven NFL performance C) Has been with the team the longest D) Has the highest salary among backups

Question 18

Why is quarterback injury impact non-linear?

A) QBs throw the ball B) QBs touch the ball on every offensive play C) QBs have larger contracts D) QBs are taller than other players

Question 19

What is the recommended approach for "game-time decision" situations?

A) Assume the player will play B) Assume the player will not play C) Model both scenarios with probabilities D) Ignore the player entirely

Question 20

Which injury type typically has the longest return-to-full-performance timeline?

A) Concussion B) Hamstring strain C) ACL tear D) High ankle sprain

Answer Key

Question 1

Correct Answer: B) Quarterback

Quarterbacks touch the ball on every offensive play and have outsized impact on team performance. Elite QBs are worth 4-7+ points over their backups.

Question 2

Correct Answer: B) 40-60%

Historical data shows players listed as "Questionable" play approximately 50-60% of the time, though this varies by injury type and practice participation.

Question 3

Correct Answer: C) Player's value over their backup

The key metric is the differential: how much better the starter is than the backup who would replace them. This captures the actual impact of the absence.

Question 4

Correct Answer: C) 4-7 points

Elite quarterbacks (Mahomes, Allen, etc.) are typically valued at 4-7 points over average backups, representing the most significant single-player impact in football.

Question 5

Correct Answer: B) Non-linear impact when multiple players at same position are injured

Compound effects occur when multiple injuries at related positions (e.g., offensive line) create greater-than-additive impacts due to communication breakdowns and depth issues.

Question 6

Correct Answer: C) Full - Full - Full

Full participation in all practices indicates the player is healthy and expected to play. This pattern corresponds to 95%+ play rates.

Question 7

Correct Answer: C) 75%

Players listed as "Doubtful" miss approximately 75% of games, making it more likely than not they won't play.

Question 8

Correct Answer: B) 80-85% of normal value

Players returning from soft tissue injuries typically perform at 80-85% of normal value initially, with full recovery over 3-4 games.

Question 9

Correct Answer: B) The impact is starter value MINUS backup value

If an elite player is replaced by a quality backup, the impact is smaller than if replaced by a poor backup. Impact = Starter - Backup.

Question 10

Correct Answer: B) 1.15x

With 2 players out at the same position group, apply a 1.15x multiplier. Each additional player adds ~15% to the compound effect.

Question 11

Correct Answer: B) When there are multiple game-time decisions

Uncertainty from game-time decisions should translate to wider confidence intervals, reflecting that outcomes could vary significantly based on who plays.

Question 12

Correct Answer: D) Impossible to quantify

While injuries significantly affect games, isolating their exact contribution is methodologically difficult due to many confounding factors.

Question 13

Correct Answer: C) Jersey number of the player

Jersey number has no relationship to performance impact. Position, backup quality, and scheme importance are the relevant factors.

Question 14

Correct Answer: C) Lines move 3-5 points

Major quarterback injuries typically cause 3-5 point line movements, reflecting the market's assessment of quarterback importance.

Question 15

Correct Answer: B) Time remaining in the game

Time remaining determines how much of the game the injury affects. An injury with 5 minutes left has far less impact than one at halftime.

Question 16

Correct Answer: B) To measure if you're capturing value before market fully prices injuries

CLV helps determine if your injury analysis identifies value that the market hasn't yet incorporated into lines.

Question 17

Correct Answer: B) Has starting experience and proven NFL performance

Quality backups have demonstrated they can perform at the NFL level through actual starting experience and positive results.

Question 18

Correct Answer: B) QBs touch the ball on every offensive play

Quarterbacks' involvement in every offensive snap creates massive impact. Other positions can be game-planned around more easily.

Question 19

Correct Answer: C) Model both scenarios with probabilities

The best approach weights both scenarios (plays vs doesn't play) by their probabilities to get an expected value that accounts for uncertainty.

Question 20

Correct Answer: C) ACL tear

ACL injuries typically require 9-12 months of recovery, with return-to-full-performance often taking an additional season beyond initial return.

Scoring Guide

Key Concepts Summary

1. Position Hierarchy: QB >> Other positions
2. Value Differential: Impact = Starter - Backup
3. Status Conversion: Out=100%, Doubtful=75%, Questionable=45%
4. Compound Effects: Multiple injuries at same position group multiply impact
5. Uncertainty: Game-time decisions require probability-weighted scenarios
6. Recovery: First game back typically 80-90% of normal value