Quiz: Betting Market Analysis

Test your understanding of betting market concepts and their analytical applications.

Multiple Choice Questions

Question 1

What does a spread of "Chiefs -7" mean?

A) The Chiefs are expected to score 7 points B) The Chiefs must win by more than 7 points to cover C) The Chiefs are 7% more likely to win D) The Chiefs won their last game by 7 points

Question 2

American odds of -150 convert to what implied probability?

A) 40% B) 50% C) 60% D) 67%

Question 3

American odds of +200 convert to what implied probability?

A) 20% B) 25% C) 33% D) 50%

Question 4

At standard -110 odds on both sides, what win rate is needed to break even?

A) 50.0% B) 51.0% C) 52.4% D) 55.0%

Question 5

What is the "vig" (vigorish)?

A) The commission the sportsbook takes B) The movement in the betting line C) The difference between opening and closing lines D) The total amount wagered on a game

Question 6

If 70% of bets are on Team A but the line moves toward Team B, what is this called?

A) Line shopping B) Reverse line movement C) Steam move D) Public fade

Question 7

What does "Closing Line Value" (CLV) measure?

A) The final score of a game B) The difference between your bet line and closing line C) The total vig paid D) The number of points scored in the 4th quarter

Question 8

Why is positive CLV considered important?

A) It guarantees winning bets B) It indicates you consistently got better prices than the closing line C) It shows you bet on favorites D) It measures how many parlays you won

Question 9

Which NFL margins are considered "key numbers"?

A) 1 and 2 B) 3 and 7 C) 10 and 14 D) 21 and 28

Question 10

Why are 3 and 7 key numbers in NFL betting?

A) They are the most common point differentials due to scoring (FG, TD) B) They represent the average spread C) Sportsbooks prefer these numbers D) They are the luckiest numbers

Question 11

What does "ATS" stand for in betting analysis?

A) Against The Spread B) Average Total Score C) Adjusted Team Strength D) Annual Trend Statistics

Question 12

A team goes 55-45 ATS at -110 odds. Are they profitable?

A) Yes, significantly profitable B) Yes, marginally profitable C) No, breaking even D) No, losing money

Question 13

What is a "steam move" in betting?

A) A slow line movement over days B) A rapid, significant line movement due to heavy betting C) A movement that reverses direction D) A line that stays constant

Question 14

Why do betting markets move lines?

A) To predict the final score B) To balance their risk exposure C) To help bettors decide D) To comply with regulations

Question 15

What is the typical standard deviation of NFL point spreads?

A) 5-7 points B) 10-11 points C) 13-14 points D) 17-18 points

Question 16

If your model predicts Home -4 and the market is Home -7, where might value exist?

A) On the home team (favorite) B) On the away team (underdog) C) On the over D) There is no value

Question 17

How many bets approximately are needed to determine betting skill statistically?

A) 50-100 B) 100-200 C) 300-400 D) 500+

Question 18

What does market efficiency mean for NFL betting lines?

A) Lines are set randomly B) Lines quickly incorporate available information C) Lines never change D) Lines favor sportsbooks 100% of the time

Question 19

A "sharp" bettor is characterized by:

A) Betting large amounts late in the week B) Consistently betting favorites C) Having positive CLV and moving lines with their bets D) Winning every bet they make

Question 20

Why is the closing line considered the best predictor of game outcomes?

A) It is set by computer algorithms B) It incorporates all available information from the market C) It is the same as the opening line D) It is always exactly right

Answer Key

Question 1

Correct Answer: B) The Chiefs must win by more than 7 points to cover

A spread represents the expected margin of victory. At -7, the favorite must win by more than 7 for bets on them to pay. Winning by exactly 7 is a push (tie).

Question 2

Correct Answer: C) 60%

For negative odds: P = |odds| / (|odds| + 100) P = 150 / (150 + 100) = 150/250 = 0.60 = 60%

Question 3

Correct Answer: C) 33%

For positive odds: P = 100 / (odds + 100) P = 100 / (200 + 100) = 100/300 = 0.333 = 33%

Question 4

Correct Answer: C) 52.4%

At -110, you risk $110 to win $100. The implied probability is 110/210 = 52.38%. You must win more than 52.38% to profit.

Question 5

Correct Answer: A) The commission the sportsbook takes

The vig (or juice) is the built-in commission in betting odds. Standard -110 on both sides represents approximately 4.76% vig.

Question 6

Correct Answer: B) Reverse line movement

When the line moves opposite to the majority of bets, it indicates "sharp" money is on the less popular side. Sportsbooks respect sharp action more than public volume.

Question 7

Correct Answer: B) The difference between your bet line and closing line

CLV measures whether you got a better price than the market's final assessment. Positive CLV means you beat the closing line.

Question 8

Correct Answer: B) It indicates you consistently got better prices than the closing line

Positive CLV suggests skill in identifying value before the market fully prices it in. Over time, positive CLV correlates strongly with profitability.

Question 9

Correct Answer: B) 3 and 7

Field goals (3 points) and touchdowns with extra points (7 points) create natural clustering at these margins. Approximately 15% of games land on 3 and 10% on 7.

Question 10

Correct Answer: A) They are the most common point differentials due to scoring (FG, TD)

NFL scoring increments (3 for FG, 7 for TD+XP) cause games to frequently end with margins of 3 or 7. This makes crossing these numbers particularly valuable in spread betting.

Question 11

Correct Answer: A) Against The Spread

ATS records track how often a team covers the point spread, which is different from their straight-up win-loss record.

Question 12

Correct Answer: B) Yes, marginally profitable

55% win rate = 55 wins × $100 - 45 losses × $110 = $5,500 - $4,950 = $550 profit ROI = $550 / $11,000 risked = 5% (marginally profitable)

Question 13

Correct Answer: B) A rapid, significant line movement due to heavy betting

Steam moves occur when significant money (often sharp) hits the market quickly, causing rapid line adjustments. These moves can be 1-3 points in minutes.

Question 14

Correct Answer: B) To balance their risk exposure

Sportsbooks move lines primarily to manage their liability. If too much money is on one side, they adjust the line to attract action on the other side.

Question 15

Correct Answer: C) 13-14 points

Historical NFL data shows game margins have a standard deviation of approximately 13.5 points. This is essential for converting spreads to probabilities.

Question 16

Correct Answer: B) On the away team (underdog)

If your model says the fair line is -4 but the market is -7, the favorite is overpriced. Value exists on the underdog (+7) who is getting more points than deserved.

Question 17

Correct Answer: D) 500+

Due to the high variance in betting outcomes, approximately 500+ bets are needed for statistical significance. Smaller samples can't reliably distinguish skill from luck.

Question 18

Correct Answer: B) Lines quickly incorporate available information

Market efficiency means prices reflect all available information. NFL lines are highly efficient, making them excellent predictions and difficult to beat consistently.

Question 19

Correct Answer: C) Having positive CLV and moving lines with their bets

Sharp bettors are defined by their track record of beating closing lines and having sufficient volume to move markets. They bet early and sportsbooks adjust lines based on their action.

Question 20

Correct Answer: B) It incorporates all available information from the market

The closing line reflects all betting activity, information, and analysis from thousands of market participants. This makes it the most accurate prediction available.

Scoring Guide

Key Concepts Summary

1. Odds Conversion: Know formulas for American to probability
2. The Vig: Understand how sportsbooks profit
3. Market Efficiency: Closing lines are highly accurate
4. CLV: The gold standard for measuring betting skill
5. Key Numbers: 3 and 7 matter due to scoring structure
6. Sharp vs Public: Different betting patterns and impacts
7. Line Movement: Interpret what moves indicate
8. Break-Even: 52.4% at -110 is the threshold