Quiz: Situational Football

Question 1

The "red zone" in football typically refers to:

A) Inside the opponent's 10-yard line B) Inside the opponent's 20-yard line C) Inside the opponent's 30-yard line D) Any scoring opportunity

Question 2

What is a typical league-average red zone touchdown rate?

A) 40-45% B) 50-53% C) 55-58% D) 65-70%

Question 3

Third down is often called the "money down" because:

A) Teams pay bonuses for conversions B) It determines whether drives continue or stall C) It has the highest EPA of any down D) Fans pay more attention

Question 4

What is the typical league-average third down conversion rate?

A) 28-32% B) 38-42% C) 48-52% D) 58-62%

Question 5

A team converting 72% of their 3rd & 1-3 attempts is performing:

A) Below average B) At league average C) Above average D) At elite level

Question 6

"Late and close" situations are typically defined as:

A) 4th quarter, any score B) 4th quarter, score within 8 points C) Final 2 minutes, any score D) Overtime only

Question 7

Which formula correctly calculates "leverage" based on win probability?

A) leverage = wp B) leverage = 1 - wp C) leverage = 4 × wp × (1 - wp) D) leverage = wp / (1 - wp)

Question 8

In two-minute situations, teams typically have a pass rate of approximately:

A) 55-60% B) 65-70% C) 75-85% D) 90-95%

Question 9

Research on "clutch" performance in football suggests:

A) Clutch is a highly repeatable skill B) Clutch has moderate year-to-year consistency C) Clutch appears to be largely random variance D) Clutch only matters for quarterbacks

Question 10

If a team has red zone EPA of +0.02 while their overall EPA is +0.08, this likely indicates:

A) Poor red zone execution B) Field compression effects (normal pattern) C) Excellent red zone performance D) Statistical error

Question 11

A defensive red zone TD rate of 48% indicates:

A) Elite defense B) Good defense C) Average defense D) Below average defense

Question 12

For third down analysis, which distance category typically has the LOWEST conversion rate?

A) 3rd & 1-2 B) 3rd & 3-4 C) 3rd & 5-6 D) 3rd & 10+

Question 13

Goal-to-go situations refer to:

A) Any play inside the 10-yard line B) Plays where the end zone is closer than the first down marker C) Fourth down plays only D) Plays inside the 5-yard line

Question 14

What is the typical sample size concern with two-minute drill analysis?

A) Too many plays to analyze B) Only 40-60 plays per team per season C) Data isn't tracked for these situations D) Plays are too similar to distinguish

Question 15

A team's third down success is largely determined by:

A) Pure conversion skill B) Avoiding 3rd & long situations C) Quarterback scrambling ability D) Weather conditions

Question 16

When comparing situational EPA to overall EPA, what does a positive difference indicate?

A) The team performs better in that situation B) The team performs worse in that situation C) The situation has higher variance D) The sample size is too small

Question 17

League-average points per red zone trip is approximately:

A) 2.5-3.0 B) 3.5-4.0 C) 4.0-4.3 D) 5.0-5.5

Question 18

Which situational metric typically has the HIGHEST correlation with wins?

A) Red zone TD rate B) Third down conversion rate C) Two-minute scoring rate D) Late/close EPA

Question 19

A team with 65%+ red zone TD rate is classified as:

A) Below average B) Average C) Good D) Elite

Question 20

Why might overall team quality explain situational performance better than situational skill?

A) Good teams face easier situations B) Overall efficiency carries into all situations C) Situational stats have larger samples D) Coaches don't prepare for specific situations

Answer Key

  1. B - The red zone is the area inside the opponent's 20-yard line.

  2. C - League-average red zone TD rate is typically 55-58%.

  3. B - Third down determines whether drives continue (conversion) or stall (punt/turnover).

  4. B - League-average third down conversion rate is approximately 38-42%.

  5. D - 72% on 3rd & Short is elite level (league average is ~65%).

  6. B - Late and close typically means 4th quarter with score within 8 points.

  7. C - Leverage = 4 × wp × (1 - wp), maximized when wp = 0.50.

  8. C - Two-minute situations see pass rates of 75-85% due to clock management needs.

  9. C - Research shows clutch performance has very low year-to-year correlation (r ≈ 0.05-0.15), suggesting it's largely random.

  10. B - Lower red zone EPA than overall is normal due to field compression and tighter coverage.

  11. C - 48% defensive red zone TD rate is approximately average (league average ~55-58% allowed).

  12. D - 3rd & 10+ has the lowest conversion rate (~25-30% league average).

  13. B - Goal-to-go means the end zone is closer than the first down marker (inside the 10 on first down, etc.).

  14. B - Teams typically only have 40-60 two-minute plays per season, limiting statistical reliability.

  15. B - Third down success is largely determined by avoiding 3rd & long situations through successful 1st and 2nd down plays.

  16. A - Positive difference (situation EPA > overall EPA) means the team performs better in that specific situation.

  17. C - League-average points per red zone trip is approximately 4.0-4.3.

  18. B - Third down conversion rate typically has the highest correlation with wins (~0.50-0.60).

  19. D - 65%+ red zone TD rate is elite level.

  20. B - Overall efficiency naturally carries into all situations; good teams execute well everywhere, not just in specific situations.

Scoring Guide

  • 18-20: Excellent - Ready for advanced situational analysis
  • 15-17: Good - Solid grasp of situational football concepts
  • 12-14: Satisfactory - Review key benchmarks and definitions
  • Below 12: Needs Review - Revisit chapter material