Further Reading: Special Teams Analytics
Kicker Evaluation
"The Economics of Kicker Compensation" by various Why paying kickers premium salaries rarely makes sense.
Football Outsiders Kickoff Metrics Methodology for kickoff evaluation. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
"FG% Regression and Kicker Value" Statistical analysis of kicker performance persistence.
Punter Evaluation
"Punting Wins Championships" by Bill Barnwell Analysis of punter impact on games.
"Net Punting Average Limitations" Why net average alone is insufficient.
"Field Position and Expected Points" The currency of punting evaluation.
Expected Value Analysis
"Expected Points and Field Goals" by Brian Burke EPA framework applied to kicking decisions.
"4th Down Decision Making" by Ben Baldwin When to kick vs go for it. https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_down_calculator/
"The Value of Field Position" by various Quantifying yards as expected points.
Return Game
"Kick Return Value in the Modern NFL" Analysis of returns post-rule changes.
"Punt Return Risk/Reward" Balancing return yards vs fumble risk.
"Return Yards Over Expected" Adjusting for opportunity quality.
Decision Analysis
"When to Go For It" by The Athletic Fourth down analytics and decisions.
"Kickoff Strategy Evolution" How touchback rules changed strategy.
"Punt vs Go For It" models Expected value frameworks for punt decisions.
Sample Size and Variance
"Why Kicker Stats Are Noisy" by analysts Statistical challenges in kicker evaluation.
"Confidence Intervals for Specialists" Proper uncertainty quantification.
"Year-to-Year Stability in Special Teams" Which metrics persist and which don't.
Team Special Teams
Football Outsiders Special Teams DVOA Team-level special teams methodology. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
"Hidden Points in Special Teams" Field position value creation.
"Coverage Unit Evaluation" Team metrics for punt and kick coverage.
Historical Analysis
"Evolution of NFL Kicking" by researchers How kicking has changed over time.
"Extra Point Distance Change Impact" Analysis of 2015 rule change.
"Kickoff Rule Changes and Strategy" How rules shaped modern strategy.
Academic Research
"Field Goal Probability Models" (papers) Statistical models for FG success.
"Expected Points from Special Teams" EPA framework applications.
"Environmental Effects on Kicking" Weather and venue analysis.
Data Sources
nfl_data_py / nflfastR Play-by-play data with special teams. https://github.com/nflverse/nfl_data_py
Pro Football Reference Basic special teams statistics. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
Football Outsiders Advanced special teams metrics. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/
Tools and Calculators
Ben Baldwin's 4th Down Calculator Decision analysis for coaches. https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_down_calculator/
Field Goal Probability Models Various expected FG% calculators.
Video and Content
Brett Kollmann Special Teams Breakdowns Film analysis of special teams plays. https://www.youtube.com/user/BrettKollmann
PFF Special Teams Analysis Grade-based evaluation content.
Podcasts
Move the Sticks Occasional special teams evaluation.
PFF NFL Podcast Specialist grading discussions.
Community Discussion
r/NFLstatheads (Reddit) Special teams metric discussions.
Twitter/X Analytics Community Kicker and punter evaluation debates.
Books
"Take Your Eye Off the Ball" by Pat Kirwan Special teams scheme explanation.
"The Essential Smart Football" by Chris B. Brown Strategic context for special teams.
Advanced Topics
"Machine Learning for FG Prediction" AI approaches to kick outcome prediction.
"Weather Models for Kicking" Environmental adjustment frameworks.
"Hangtime and Coverage Interaction" Advanced punting analysis (requires tracking data).
Salary and Contract Analysis
Over The Cap - Kicker Contracts Historical kicker salary data. https://overthecap.com/
"Kicker Market Value" by analysts What specialists should actually be paid.