Chapter 7 Further Reading: Rate Statistics and Pace Adjustment

Annotated Bibliography

This annotated bibliography provides resources for deeper exploration of rate statistics, pace analysis, and per-possession metrics. Resources include foundational texts, academic research, and contemporary analytical sources.

Foundational Texts

Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis

Author: Dean Oliver Publisher: Potomac Books, 2004 ISBN: 978-1574886887

Dean Oliver's seminal work establishes the theoretical foundation for possession-based analysis. His "Four Factors" framework (shooting, turnovers, rebounding, free throws) uses rate statistics to decompose team offense and defense.

Key Chapters for Rate Statistics: - Chapter 1: The Box Score and Offensive Efficiency - Chapter 2: Individual Offensive Rating - Chapter 4: Evaluating Defense - Chapter 7: Pace and Style

Why Read This: The foundational text for basketball rate statistics. Oliver's possession-based approach influenced all subsequent work in the field.

Thinking Basketball: A Creative Approach to Playing Smart

Author: Ben Taylor Publisher: Self-Published, 2016 ISBN: 978-1536tried

Taylor extends traditional rate-based analysis to incorporate contextual factors. His work bridges pure statistics and visual analysis, using rate statistics as a starting point for deeper investigation.

Key Contributions: - Usage-adjusted analysis - Playoff rate statistics - Per-possession historical comparisons

Why Read This: Demonstrates how to interpret rate statistics in broader analytical context.

Academic Research

"A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics"

Authors: Justin Kubatko, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pelton, Dan T. Rosenbaum Journal: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 3, Issue 3, 2007

This foundational paper establishes standardized terminology and methodology for basketball rate statistics. Includes rigorous definitions of pace, possessions, and per-possession metrics.

Topics Covered: - Possession estimation formulas - Pace calculation methodology - Individual rating calculations - Proper use of rate statistics

Why Read This: Authoritative source for standardized definitions used throughout basketball analytics.

"Points Per Possession: A New Measure of Basketball Efficiency"

Author: Dean Oliver Publication: STATS Basketball Scoreboard, 1991

Oliver's early articulation of per-possession analysis. Though predating modern analytics infrastructure, this work established concepts that became standard practice.

Historical Significance: - First systematic application of possession-based analysis - Introduced offensive and defensive rating concepts - Demonstrated pace effects on raw statistics

Why Read This: Historical context for how possession-based analysis developed.

"Pace of Play in the NBA"

Author: John Hollinger Publication: ESPN.com Insider, Various Years (2002-2013)

Hollinger's ongoing coverage of pace trends during his ESPN tenure documented the slowdown of the 2000s and early signs of pace increases. His analysis connected pace to playing style and roster construction.

Key Observations: - Documentation of pace nadir in late 1990s/early 2000s - Analysis of team-specific pace strategies - Player evaluation adjusted for pace

Why Read This: Real-time analysis of pace evolution during crucial period.

Books on Basketball Analytics

Sprawlball: A Visual Tour of the New Era of the NBA

Author: Kirk Goldsberry Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2019 ISBN: 978-1328767516

Goldsberry's visually-driven analysis uses rate statistics to contextualize the three-point revolution. His shot chart work demonstrates how spatial analysis supplements per-possession metrics.

Rate Statistics Content: - Shot efficiency by location - Per-possession shooting analysis - Era-adjusted shot selection

Why Read This: Demonstrates modern application of efficiency metrics to spatial data.

The Midrange Theory: Basketball's Evolution in the Age of Analytics

Author: Seth Partnow Publisher: Triumph Books, 2021 ISBN: 978-1629379210

Partnow, former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, provides insider perspective on how NBA teams use rate statistics. Includes discussion of limitations and proper application.

Key Chapters: - Chapter 3: Shooting Efficiency - Chapter 5: Pace and Style - Chapter 8: Evaluating Defense

Why Read This: Practitioner perspective on how rate statistics are used in NBA front offices.

Online Resources

Basketball-Reference.com

URL: https://www.basketball-reference.com Type: Statistical Database

The most comprehensive publicly available source for basketball rate statistics. Provides per-100 possession stats, pace data, and offensive/defensive ratings for all players and teams.

Key Features: - Per-game, per-36, and per-100 possession stats - Team pace data for all seasons - Offensive and defensive ratings - On/off statistics

Why Use This: Essential resource for rate statistic research.

Cleaning the Glass

URL: https://cleaningtheglass.com Type: Advanced Statistics Site (Subscription)

Ben Falk's subscription site emphasizes proper statistical interpretation. Provides rate statistics with garbage time filtered out and extensive percentile rankings.

Unique Features: - Garbage-time-excluded statistics - Percentile rankings by position - Multi-year rate statistics - Thoughtful contextual analysis

Why Use This: Highest-quality rate statistics with proper context.

NBA.com/Stats

URL: https://www.nba.com/stats Type: Official League Statistics

The NBA's official statistics portal provides per-possession statistics with tracking data context. Includes advanced metrics not available elsewhere.

Rate Statistics Available: - Per-36 and per-100 possession stats - Team pace and efficiency - Lineup efficiency data - Speed and distance tracking

Why Use This: Official source with tracking data integration.

PBP Stats

URL: https://www.pbpstats.com Type: Play-by-Play Statistics

Darryl Blackport's site provides detailed per-possession analysis derived from play-by-play data. Includes filters for lineup, time, and situation.

Unique Features: - Possession-level granularity - Lineup-specific rate statistics - Situation-filtered analysis - Historical play-by-play data

Why Use This: Most detailed play-by-play derived rate statistics available publicly.

Historical Rate Statistics Sources

82games.com

URL: http://www.82games.com Type: Historical Analysis Site

Long-running basketball analytics site with historical pace data and rate statistics. Archive contains influential early articles on possession-based analysis.

Historical Content: - Pace trends from 1990s-2000s - Early per-possession analysis - Historical efficiency data

Why Use This: Historical archive of rate-based analysis during analytics' formative period.

APBRmetrics Forum Archives

URL: https://apbrmetrics.com (historical) Type: Discussion Forum Archives

The APBRmetrics community developed many rate statistics concepts through collaborative discussion. Archives contain original derivations of possession formulas and adjustment methods.

Historical Significance: - Original development of many metrics - Community-derived improvements - Early cross-era comparison methods

Why Explore This: Historical context for how rate statistics evolved through community collaboration.

Academic Journals

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS)

Publisher: De Gruyter URL: https://www.degruyter.com/journal/key/jqas

JQAS publishes peer-reviewed research on sports analytics, including basketball rate statistics. Articles undergo rigorous statistical review.

Relevant Topics: - Possession estimation methodology - Pace adjustment techniques - Cross-era comparison methods - Defensive rating development

Why Follow This: Highest academic rigor for sports analytics research.

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Papers

URL: http://www.sloansportsconference.com Type: Conference Proceedings

The annual Sloan Sports Analytics Conference publishes research papers, many addressing basketball rate statistics and their application.

Sample Relevant Papers: - "Improved NBA Adjusted +/- Using Regularization" (Sill, 2010) - "Possession-Based Player Performance Analysis" (Engelmann, 2017) - Various papers on efficiency metrics

Why Review These: Cutting-edge research at intersection of academia and practice.

Specialized Topics

"The Four Factors of Basketball Success"

Author: Dean Oliver Various Publications

Oliver's four factors (effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, free throw rate) are all rate-based metrics. Understanding their derivation is essential for rate statistics fluency.

The Four Factors: 1. eFG% (shooting) 2. TOV% (turnovers) 3. OREB% (rebounding) 4. FT/FGA (free throws)

Why Study This: Foundational framework for team efficiency analysis.

Historical Pace Research

Various Sources

Multiple researchers have examined historical pace trends:

  • Wayne Winston - Statistical analysis of pace evolution
  • Neil Paine (FiveThirtyEight) - Historical pace reconstruction
  • Justin Kubatko - Basketball-Reference pace documentation

Topics Covered: - Shot clock era pace changes - Rule impact on pace - Era-specific pace estimation

Why Explore These: Essential for cross-era comparisons.

Practical Application Resources

FiveThirtyEight NBA Coverage

URL: https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/nba/ Type: Applied Analytics Journalism

FiveThirtyEight provides accessible rate-based analysis, including their RAPTOR metric which builds on per-possession foundations.

Rate Statistics Coverage: - Pace trends analysis - Per-possession player evaluation - Historical comparisons using rate stats

Why Follow This: Accessible application of rate statistics to current events.

Nylon Calculus (SB Nation)

URL: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/nylon-calculus Type: Analytics Writing

Collaborative basketball analytics writing featuring rate statistics analysis from multiple contributors.

Topics Covered: - Pace-adjusted analysis - Per-possession breakdowns - Methodological discussions

Why Read This: Diverse analytical perspectives on rate statistics.

Video Resources

Thinking Basketball (YouTube)

Creator: Ben Taylor URL: https://www.youtube.com/c/ThinkingBasketball

Video analysis integrating rate statistics with visual evidence. Demonstrates how to interpret per-possession data in game context.

Relevant Content: - Per-possession historical analysis - Rate stat interpretation - Visual evidence supporting statistical conclusions

Why Watch This: Best integration of rate statistics and film study.

The Lowe Post Podcast

Host: Zach Lowe Platform: ESPN/Spotify

Zach Lowe regularly discusses rate statistics with NBA front office personnel and analysts. Provides practitioner perspective on applied analytics.

Rate Statistics Discussions: - Team efficiency analysis - Per-possession player evaluation - Pace strategy discussions

Why Listen: Inside perspective on how rate statistics inform NBA decisions.

Reading Path Recommendations

For Beginners

  1. Basketball-Reference glossary and explanation pages
  2. Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper" (Chapters 1-4)
  3. FiveThirtyEight explainer articles
  4. Ben Taylor's introductory videos

For Intermediate Analysts

  1. Complete Oliver's "Basketball on Paper"
  2. Kubatko et al. academic paper
  3. Cleaning the Glass methodology explanations
  4. Partnow's "The Midrange Theory"

For Advanced Researchers

  1. JQAS basketball articles
  2. MIT Sloan Conference paper archives
  3. APBRmetrics historical discussions
  4. Team-specific pace research

Updates and Living Resources

Rate statistics methodology continues to evolve. Stay current through:

  • Twitter/X: Follow @kpelton, @BenTaylor_NBA, @sloansportsconf
  • Podcasts: The Lowe Post, Thinking Basketball, Dunc'd On
  • Newsletters: Various analyst newsletters
  • Conferences: MIT Sloan (annual), NESSIS (New England statistics)

This bibliography represents resources available as of the textbook publication date. URLs and availability may change over time.