Chapter 14 Further Reading: Expected Possession Value (EPV)

Key Papers

Cervone, D., D'Amour, A., Bornn, L., & Goldsberry, K. (2016). "A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes." Journal of the American Statistical Association.

Summary: The foundational academic paper on EPV methodology, presenting the full mathematical framework.

Franks, A., Miller, A., Bornn, L., & Goldsberry, K. (2015). "Counterpoints: Advanced Defensive Metrics for NBA Basketball." MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Summary: Application of spatial modeling to defensive evaluation, complementing EPV offensive analysis.

Sicilia, A., Pelechrinis, K., & Goldsberry, K. (2019). "DeepHoops: Evaluating Micro-Actions in Basketball Using Deep Feature Representations." MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Summary: Deep learning approaches to micro-action evaluation extending EPV concepts.

Online Resources

Second Spectrum

  • Provider of NBA tracking data and analytics
  • https://www.secondspectrum.com

NBA Advanced Stats

  • Official NBA tracking statistics
  • https://www.nba.com/stats/players/tracking/
  1. Goldsberry shot chart visualizations (basic spatial analytics)
  2. Cervone et al. (2016) - EPV methodology
  3. Franks et al. (2015) - Defensive applications
  4. Deep learning extensions