Chapter 14 Key Takeaways: Expected Possession Value (EPV)
Executive Summary
EPV provides a real-time estimate of expected points at any moment during a possession, enabling granular evaluation of individual actions, decisions, and defensive responses using spatiotemporal tracking data.
Core Concepts Checklist
- [ ] EPV definition: Expected points the possession will yield, updated continuously
- [ ] EPV starts at ~1.0-1.1: Reflecting league average possession value
- [ ] EPV changes with actions: Drives, passes, shots change expected value
- [ ] EPV Added: Measures value creation from specific actions
- [ ] Requires tracking data: Continuous spatial information essential
Key Applications
- Shot selection evaluation
- Passing decision analysis
- Defensive scheme assessment
- Player contribution measurement
- Play design optimization
Interpretation Guidelines
| EPV Range | Situation |
|---|---|
| <0.8 | Poor position, likely turnover or bad shot |
| 0.8-1.0 | Below average opportunity |
| 1.0-1.1 | Average possession value |
| 1.1-1.3 | Good opportunity |
| >1.3 | Excellent opportunity (open shot at rim/corner) |
Limitations
- Requires expensive tracking infrastructure
- Complex modeling requirements
- Counterfactual estimation challenges
- Doesn't capture option creation fully
Summary
EPV revolutionizes basketball analytics by providing continuous, action-level value measurement, enabling unprecedented granularity in player and team evaluation.