Case Study 1: Nikola Jokic and the Evolution of Center Value

Introduction

Nikola Jokic's emergence as a two-time MVP and three-time BPM leader represents a fascinating case study in how advanced metrics can identify unconventional greatness. This case examines how BPM captured Jokic's unique value profile and what his dominance reveals about the metric's strengths and limitations.

Background: The 41st Pick

Draft Position and Early Skepticism

Nikola Jokic was selected 41st overall in the 2014 NBA Draft by the Denver Nuggets. At 6'10" and 250 pounds with limited athleticism, Jokic did not fit the mold of a modern NBA center. Scouting reports highlighted concerns:

• Below-average lateral quickness
• Limited rim protection ability
• Unconventional offensive game
• Questions about defensive viability

Traditional evaluations suggested a role player ceiling, perhaps a backup center who could score in the post.

BPM's Early Detection

BPM told a different story almost immediately. In his sophomore season (2016-17), Jokic posted:

While averaging just 16.7 points per game (42nd in NBA), Jokic ranked 8th in BPM. The metric recognized contributions that didn't appear in simple scoring totals.

The BPM Breakdown: Understanding Jokic's Value

Offensive Profile

Jokic's OBPM consistently ranks among the league's best due to several factors:

1. Elite Playmaking

Jokic leads all centers in assists and assist percentage. His passing from the post creates high-value shots for teammates:

BPM's assist coefficient heavily weights this production, recognizing that point-center facilitation creates offensive value beyond personal scoring.

2. Scoring Efficiency

Despite modest volume by superstar standards, Jokic maintains elite efficiency:

BPM's scoring efficiency component combines volume (usage rate) with efficiency (TS% relative to league average), capturing Jokic's ability to score at high rates without sacrificing efficiency.

3. Offensive Rebounding

Jokic's offensive rebounding creates additional possessions:

• Career ORB%: 7.8% (excellent for a center)
• Creates second-chance opportunities
• OBPM includes ORB% as a positive coefficient

Defensive Profile

Jokic's DBPM has been more controversial:

Early Career Concerns

Initial DBPM estimates were modest to negative, reflecting: - Limited shot-blocking (career 0.8 BPG) - Perceived switchability concerns - Slower foot speed

Improvement Over Time

Jokic's DBPM has improved as he's refined his positioning and team defense:

BPM's team defensive adjustment credits Jokic for Denver's improved defense, even as his individual defensive statistics remain modest.

BPM vs. Other Metrics

Comparison with RAPM

Jokic's BPM and RAPM estimates have generally aligned well:

The close alignment suggests BPM accurately captures Jokic's value—his contributions show up both in box scores and in lineup data.

Where Metrics Diverge

Some analysts have questioned whether BPM overvalues Jokic relative to perimeter stars:

Arguments for BPM Accuracy: - Jokic's teams consistently outperform expectations - On/off splits support elite impact - Advanced tracking metrics confirm playmaking value

Arguments for Potential Overvaluation: - Defensive metrics may be too generous - Position adjustment may over-credit center playmaking - Playoff sample shows some regression

Historical Context: All-Time BPM Leaders

Single-Season Rankings

Jokic's 2021-22 season (BPM +13.7) ranks among the highest ever recorded:

If BPM is accurate, Jokic is having historically great seasons rivaling the all-time greats.

VORP Accumulation

Jokic's VORP accumulation suggests rapid value creation:

While behind LeBron's pace, Jokic is accumulating VORP faster than most Hall of Famers.

Limitations Revealed

What BPM Misses

The Jokic case reveals BPM limitations:

1. Defensive Specifics

BPM cannot distinguish between different types of defensive value: - Rim protection vs. perimeter defense - Help defense positioning - Defensive communication and scheming

Jokic may be a smart, effective defender despite modest blocks and steals, but BPM cannot fully capture this nuance.

2. Playoff Context

BPM uses regular season data. Playoff adjustments may reveal different value: - Opponents scheme specifically for star players - Effort and intensity differ - Sample sizes are smaller

3. Usage Distribution

BPM credits Jokic for efficiency at high usage, but doesn't fully capture opportunity cost: - What if another player could use those touches? - Does Jokic's style limit teammates' development? - How would he perform with different supporting casts?

What BPM Captures Well

Conversely, Jokic validates BPM's ability to:

1. Identify Unconventional Stars

BPM recognized Jokic's value before mainstream consensus, demonstrating the metric's ability to see past traditional evaluation frameworks.

2. Value Passing Big Men

The assist and playmaking coefficients appropriately reward Jokic's unique skill set, recognizing that playmaking from the center position creates substantial value.

3. Integrate Efficiency and Volume

Jokic's high efficiency at high usage rates represents genuine offensive creation, and BPM's framework properly weights this combination.

Practical Implications

Draft Evaluation

The Jokic case suggests teams should:

• Look beyond traditional size/athleticism profiles
• Value playmaking potential at all positions
• Trust advanced metrics that identify unconventional value
• Be willing to draft in the second round for upside

Contract Valuation

Using BPM/VORP for Jokic's contract evaluation:

BPM/VORP analysis suggests the supermax is approximately fair value—Jokic will earn roughly what he produces.

Playing Style Evolution

Jokic demonstrates that BPM-optimal play may differ from traditional expectations: - Passing from the post instead of always scoring - Taking high-percentage shots rather than forcing volume - Creating for teammates rather than demanding the ball

Teams might optimize their stars' BPM by encouraging similar patterns.

Conclusion

Nikola Jokic's career illustrates both the power and limitations of BPM. The metric correctly identified his unique value years before mainstream recognition, validating BPM's ability to capture unconventional contributions. At the same time, ongoing debates about Jokic's defensive value and playoff performance highlight areas where BPM's box-score foundation creates uncertainty.

For analysts, the key lesson is that BPM should be trusted as a strong indicator of player value while acknowledging its limitations. For a player like Jokic whose game involves substantial playmaking and efficiency, BPM provides an excellent measure of contribution. For players whose value derives more from off-ball actions or defensive positioning, additional context is required.

Discussion Questions

1. How should BPM weight center assists versus guard assists? Is the current weighting appropriate?

2. Does Jokic's BPM dominance suggest he's the best player in the NBA, or does the metric systematically favor his style?

3. How might BPM be modified to better capture defensive value for players like Jokic?

4. What does Jokic's VORP trajectory suggest about his Hall of Fame case?

5. If you were building a team, would you prefer a Jokic-type (high BPM center) or a more traditional configuration?

Data Exercise

Using Basketball Reference data:

1. Compare Jokic's BPM to other all-time great centers at the same ages.
2. Calculate the correlation between Jokic's monthly BPM and the Nuggets' winning percentage.
3. Identify other second-round picks with high early-career BPM and analyze their trajectories.
4. Build a regression model predicting VORP at age 30 from statistics at age 25 and evaluate Jokic's projection.