Case Study 1: Stephen Curry and the 2015-16 Season - Redefining Shooting Efficiency

Executive Summary

Stephen Curry's 2015-16 season stands as perhaps the greatest individual shooting performance in NBA history. His unanimous MVP campaign fundamentally altered how the basketball world understands shooting efficiency, demonstrating that three-point shooting at extreme volume could be the most efficient offensive approach. This case study examines Curry's historic season through the lens of shooting efficiency metrics, analyzing how he shattered conventional wisdom about the tradeoff between volume and efficiency.

Background: The Pre-Curry Shooting Paradigm

Traditional Efficiency Expectations

Before the mid-2010s, basketball conventional wisdom held several beliefs about shooting efficiency:

1. Volume inversely correlates with efficiency: The more shots a player takes, the lower their efficiency should be
2. Three-point shooting is supplementary: Threes complement an inside game but shouldn't be the primary weapon
3. Elite efficiency requires easy shots: High TS% players typically get layups, dunks, or open shots
4. Ball-dominant stars sacrifice efficiency: Primary scorers accept lower efficiency for higher volume

Historical Context

Looking at players who led the league in scoring prior to 2015:

Even Durant's exceptional 2013-14 season relied heavily on mid-range shooting (35% of attempts) rather than three-pointers.

The 2015-16 Season: By the Numbers

Raw Statistics

Efficiency Metrics

Shot Distribution

Detailed Efficiency Analysis

Breaking Down eFG%

Curry's eFG% calculation demonstrates the three-point bonus effect:

$$eFG\% = \frac{805 + 0.5 \times 402}{1598} \times 100 = 62.95\%$$

For context, let's compare to a hypothetical player with identical FGM but no three-pointers:

• Traditional FG% of 50.4% yields 1.008 points per FGA
• Curry's eFG% of 62.95% yields 1.259 points per FGA

The difference: 0.251 additional points per shot, or approximately 4 extra points per game purely from three-point conversion.

True Shooting Analysis

Curry's TS% of 66.9% breaks down as follows:

$$TS\% = \frac{2375}{2 \times (1598 + 0.44 \times 400)} \times 100 = 66.9\%$$

True Shooting Attempts: 1598 + (0.44 * 400) = 1774

Points Per True Shooting Attempt: 2375 / 1774 = 1.339

For comparison, league average TS% was approximately 54.0% in 2015-16, meaning Curry was nearly 13 percentage points above average while leading the league in scoring.

The Volume-Efficiency Matrix

Historically, players faced a choice:

Curry in 2015-16: 19.5 FGA/game at 66.9% TS% - the highest combination of volume and efficiency for a perimeter player in NBA history.

Three-Point Revolution in One Season

The 402 Three-Pointers

Curry's 402 made three-pointers broke his own record of 286 from 2014-15. The progression:

The 116-make jump was unprecedented. For context, the next closest single-season increase in record history was 31 makes.

Expected Value Dominance

Curry's three-point shooting expected value:

$$EV_{3PT} = 0.454 \times 3 = 1.362 \text{ points per attempt}$$

This exceeded: - League average two-pointer EV (0.52 * 2 = 1.04) - League average three-pointer EV (0.35 * 3 = 1.05) - His own mid-range EV (0.468 * 2 = 0.94) - His own rim EV (0.64 * 2 = 1.28)

Key insight: Curry's three-point shot was more efficient than his layups and superior to any other shot in basketball.

Distance Analysis

Curry's shooting by three-point distance:

The consistency across distances was remarkable. Even his deepest attempts exceeded league-average efficiency.

Comparison to Historical Performances

High-Scoring Seasons

Curry's efficiency margin above league average dwarfed all previous high-scoring seasons.

Elite Efficiency Seasons

No perimeter player had approached this efficiency at such volume.

Impact on Shot Selection Philosophy

The Efficiency Threshold Shift

Pre-Curry conventional wisdom held that shot selection should prioritize: 1. Layups and dunks 2. Open mid-range shots 3. Three-pointers as secondary option

Curry's season demonstrated an alternative hierarchy: 1. Three-pointers (even contested) 2. Layups and dunks 3. Mid-range only when necessary

League-Wide Implications

Following Curry's 2015-16 season, teams began recognizing:

$$\text{If } 3P\% > 35\%, \text{ then } EV_{3PT} > EV_{2PT_{avg}}$$

This mathematical reality, proven at extreme volume by Curry, accelerated the three-point revolution:

Analytical Lessons

Lesson 1: Efficiency Scales with Elite Skill

Traditional models assumed efficiency must decline with volume. Curry proved that with sufficient skill, this relationship inverts for three-point shooting.

Mathematical explanation: - Two-point efficiency naturally declines with volume (more difficult shots) - Three-point efficiency can remain stable because the skill is less context-dependent - Shot creation ability maintains open look rates

Lesson 2: Expected Value Drives Optimal Strategy

Curry's shot selection was nearly optimal by expected value:

*Free throw EV calculated as FTM/TSA contribution

Lesson 3: Sample Size Validates Sustainability

Critics might dismiss outlier seasons as flukes. Curry's consistency across multiple seasons validates the approach:

The 2015-16 season was the peak of a consistent pattern, not an anomaly.

Lesson 4: Gravity Creates Systemic Efficiency

Curry's presence created efficiency gains beyond his direct statistics: - Defenders extended to the three-point line created driving lanes - Help defense pulled from rim - Teammates received more open shots

The Warriors' team eFG% increased by approximately 3% with Curry on court versus off court.

Measuring the Unmeasurable: Gravity

Quantifying Off-Ball Impact

Traditional efficiency metrics only capture made/missed shots. Curry's "gravity"—the defensive attention he commanded—created additional value:

On-Court vs. Off-Court Teammate Shooting:

This systemic improvement represents value that TS% and eFG% cannot capture.

The Case for Advanced Metrics

While Curry's traditional efficiency metrics were historic, they likely understate his true impact because: 1. They don't credit open shots created for teammates 2. They don't account for defensive attention absorbed 3. They don't value possession efficiency from drawing double-teams

Conclusions

Stephen Curry's 2015-16 season serves as a master class in shooting efficiency:

1. Highest TS% for a scoring champion (66.9%) demonstrated that volume and efficiency can coexist at historic levels

2. 402 three-pointers proved that three-point shooting can be a primary weapon, not just supplementary

3. Expected value optimization showed that shot selection should follow mathematical efficiency

4. Sustainable performance across multiple seasons validated the approach as repeatable skill, not variance

5. League-wide impact accelerated adoption of three-point-centric offense across the NBA

The season fundamentally shifted basketball's understanding of shooting efficiency. What was once considered inefficient volume shooting became optimal shot selection. The metrics told a clear story: if you can shoot threes at elite rates, you should shoot as many as possible.

Discussion Questions

1. Curry's FG% of 50.4% would historically be considered merely adequate. How do traditional FG% interpretations mislead when applied to three-point-heavy scorers?

2. If a player shoots 40% on threes and 45% on twos, how should they allocate their shots? How does Curry's season inform this decision?

3. How might defenses have adapted differently if they understood eFG% and TS% implications earlier in Curry's career?

4. What statistical methods could capture Curry's "gravity" that traditional efficiency metrics miss?

5. Has Curry's 2015-16 efficiency been matched or exceeded since? What does this suggest about the uniqueness of the performance?

Data Sources

• NBA.com official statistics
• Basketball-Reference.com
• NBA Stats tracking data
• Cleaning the Glass
• ESPN Stats & Information