Case Study 1: The 2016 NBA Finals Game 7 - End-of-Game Decision Analysis

Executive Summary

Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors stands as one of the most dramatic finishes in basketball history. With the game tied 89-89 in the final minutes, both teams faced a series of high-leverage decisions that would determine the championship. This case study analyzes the strategic decisions made in the final five minutes through the lens of win probability, game theory, and situational analysis.

Background

Series Context

• Cavaliers: Down 3-1, won Games 5 and 6 to force Game 7
• Warriors: 73-9 regular season record (best in NBA history)
• Stakes: First championship for Cleveland in 52 years vs. back-to-back titles for Golden State
• Venue: Oracle Arena, Oakland (Warriors home court)

Game 7 Situation (Final 5 Minutes)

Analytical Framework

1. Win Probability Throughout Final 5 Minutes

def calculate_finals_wp(score_diff, time_remaining, has_possession, home_court=True):
    """
    Calculate win probability for Game 7 Finals situation.

    Enhanced model accounting for:
    - Score differential
    - Time remaining
    - Possession
    - Home court (Warriors)
    """
    import numpy as np
    from scipy.stats import norm

    # Possession value (~1 point)
    possession_adj = 0.5 if has_possession else -0.5

    # Home court adjustment (~3 points)
    home_adj = 1.5 if home_court else -1.5

    # Effective lead
    effective_lead = score_diff + possession_adj + home_adj

    # Variance scales with time
    points_per_second = 0.068
    if time_remaining > 0:
        std = np.sqrt(time_remaining * points_per_second * 2)
    else:
        return 1.0 if score_diff > 0 else (0.5 if score_diff == 0 else 0.0)

    z_score = effective_lead / std
    return norm.cdf(z_score)

# Key moments analysis
key_moments = [
    {'time': 300, 'score_diff': 0, 'event': 'Start of analysis window'},
    {'time': 279, 'score_diff': 0, 'event': 'LeBron block on Iguodala'},
    {'time': 150, 'score_diff': 0, 'event': 'Curry missed three'},
    {'time': 53, 'score_diff': 3, 'event': 'Kyrie Irving three-pointer'},
    {'time': 10, 'score_diff': 4, 'event': 'LeBron free throws'},
]

Win Probability Timeline

2. The LeBron James Block (4:39 remaining)

Situation Analysis

def analyze_block_impact():
    """
    Analyze the impact of LeBron's chase-down block.
    """
    pre_block_state = {
        'score': 'Tied 89-89',
        'possession': 'Warriors',
        'play_type': 'Fast break layup attempt',
        'expected_points': 1.5,  # ~75% conversion on fast break layup
        'gsw_wp_if_made': 0.68,  # Up 2 with 4:35 left
        'gsw_wp_if_missed_normally': 0.53
    }

    post_block_state = {
        'result': 'Block, no possession change (ball out of bounds)',
        'new_possession': 'Warriors (retained)',
        'psychological_impact': 'Massive momentum shift',
        'actual_gsw_wp': 0.48  # Slight CLE advantage
    }

    # WPA calculation
    # If Iguodala scores: GSW WP = 68%
    # Block result: GSW WP = 48% (retained possession but wasted opportunity)

    wpa_lebron = 0.68 - 0.48  # +20% swing prevented

    return {
        'pre_block': pre_block_state,
        'post_block': post_block_state,
        'wpa_swing': wpa_lebron,
        'historical_significance': 'Single highest-WPA defensive play in Finals history'
    }

Key Insight: The block prevented approximately +20% win probability for Golden State. Without the block, the Warriors likely go up 91-89 with 4:35 remaining, with ~68% WP.

3. Stephen Curry's Missed Three (1:50 remaining)

Shot Selection Analysis

def analyze_curry_shot():
    """
    Analyze Curry's shot selection on the missed three.
    """
    situation = {
        'score': 'Tied 89-89',
        'time_remaining': 110,  # seconds
        'shot_clock': 12,  # approximately
        'curry_3pt_pct_finals': 0.403,
        'expected_value_3pt': 3 * 0.403,  # 1.21 points
        'alternative_play_ev': 1.05  # Drive/mid-range option
    }

    # Shot quality assessment
    shot_quality = {
        'contested': True,
        'off_dribble': True,
        'distance': '28 feet',
        'adjusted_make_pct': 0.32,  # Lower than average due to context
        'adjusted_ev': 0.96
    }

    # Decision analysis
    decision_analysis = {
        'was_shot_optimal': 'Debatable',
        'reasoning': 'Curry is elite shooter, but shot was heavily contested',
        'alternative_consideration': 'Drive could create higher % look or foul',
        'clock_context': '12 seconds left enough for reset'
    }

    return situation, shot_quality, decision_analysis

Analytical Assessment: While Curry is historically elite, this contested 28-footer had lower EV than alternatives. However, given his shot-making history, the decision was within reasonable bounds.

4. The Kyrie Irving Three-Pointer (0:53 remaining)

The Championship-Winning Shot

def analyze_kyrie_shot():
    """
    Comprehensive analysis of Kyrie's championship shot.
    """
    pre_shot_state = {
        'score': 'Tied 89-89',
        'time_remaining': 53,
        'shot_clock': None,  # No shot clock in final minute
        'cle_wp': 0.55,  # Slight advantage due to possession
        'play_call': 'Isolation for Irving'
    }

    shot_characteristics = {
        'type': 'Step-back three-pointer',
        'defender': 'Stephen Curry',
        'contest_level': 'Moderate',
        'difficulty': 'High',
        'irving_3pt_pct': 0.321,  # Finals series
        'adjusted_make_pct': 0.28,  # Given difficulty
    }

    # Expected value vs alternative
    shot_ev = 3 * 0.28  # 0.84 points
    drive_ev = 1.15  # Higher expected value

    # However, clock management matters
    clock_considerations = {
        'shot_time_used': 48,  # Went deep into clock
        'time_for_warriors_if_miss': 5,  # Only one desperation shot
        'time_for_warriors_if_score': 53,  # Full possession
        'strategic_value_of_timing': '+0.15 EV adjustment'
    }

    # WPA calculation
    post_shot_wp = 0.89  # Up 3 with 53 seconds
    wpa = 0.89 - 0.55  # +34% WPA

    return {
        'pre_shot': pre_shot_state,
        'shot_analysis': shot_characteristics,
        'wpa': wpa,
        'historical_context': 'First lead change since 83-83'
    }

Strategic Genius of the Play: 1. Used 48 seconds of clock before shooting 2. If missed, Warriors have only ~5 seconds for desperation shot 3. The timing optimization added ~15% to expected value 4. Defended by Curry (not their best defender) due to switch

5. Golden State's Response (Final 53 Seconds)

Warriors' Decision Tree

def analyze_warriors_final_possessions():
    """
    Analyze Warriors' strategic decisions when down 3 with 53 seconds.
    """
    possession_1 = {
        'situation': 'Down 3, 53 seconds, Warriors ball',
        'options': {
            'quick_3': {
                'success_rate': 0.32,
                'time_used': 8,
                'if_made': 'Tie game, ~45% WP',
                'if_missed': 'CLE ball, 45 sec, ~85% CLE WP'
            },
            'work_for_better_shot': {
                'success_rate': 0.38,
                'time_used': 15,
                'reasoning': 'Higher quality shot'
            },
            'drive_for_two': {
                'success_rate': 0.52,
                'points': 2,
                'if_made': 'Down 1, foul immediately'
            }
        },
        'actual_result': 'Curry rushed three, missed',
        'time_remaining_after': 45
    }

    # Optimal strategy analysis
    optimal_strategy = {
        'recommendation': 'Work for 2, foul immediately',
        'reasoning': [
            'Higher percentage shot',
            'If score, immediate foul puts CLE on line',
            'Two possessions possible vs one three',
            'CLE shoots ~70% FT (Love, Smith)'
        ],
        'expected_wp_with_optimal': 0.18,
        'expected_wp_with_3pt_approach': 0.11
    }

    return possession_1, optimal_strategy

Key Decision Error: The Warriors' immediate three-point attempt, while understandable emotionally, was likely suboptimal. A higher-percentage two followed by fouling offered better win probability.

6. The Final Sequence

LeBron James Free Throws (0:10 remaining)

def analyze_final_fts():
    """
    Analyze LeBron's free throw situation at end of game.
    """
    situation = {
        'score': 'CLE 92, GSW 89',
        'time': 10.6,
        'foul': 'On LeBron (intentional)',
        'lebron_ft_pct': 0.731  # Season average
    }

    outcomes = {
        'make_both': {
            'probability': 0.731 ** 2,  # 0.534
            'result': 'Up 5, game over'
        },
        'make_one': {
            'probability': 2 * 0.731 * 0.269,  # 0.393
            'result': 'Up 4, need score + foul'
        },
        'miss_both': {
            'probability': 0.269 ** 2,  # 0.072
            'result': 'Up 3, one possession'
        }
    }

    # Warriors' fouling decision
    fouling_analysis = {
        'why_foul': 'Only chance is if he misses both',
        'expected_ft_points': 2 * 0.731,  # 1.46
        'alternative': 'Let clock run out',
        'decision': 'Correct to foul given situation'
    }

    # Actual outcome
    actual = {
        'first_ft': 'Made',
        'second_ft': 'Missed',
        'result': 'CLE 93, GSW 89, 10.6 seconds',
        'final_wp_cavaliers': 0.96
    }

    return situation, outcomes, fouling_analysis, actual

Key Insights

Insight 1: Defensive Plays Can Have Championship-Level WPA

LeBron's block created a +20% WPA swing - one of the highest-leverage defensive plays in Finals history. Traditional box scores miss this contribution entirely.

Insight 2: Shot Timing Is Strategic, Not Just Shot Quality

Kyrie's three-pointer was not the highest expected value shot, but the timing (using 48 seconds) dramatically increased its strategic value by limiting Golden State's response options.

Insight 3: Down 3 Strategy Remains Debated

The Warriors' immediate three-point attempt reflected conventional thinking, but analytics suggest working for a two and fouling may offer better expected outcomes.

Insight 4: Win Probability Models Captured the Drama

The tie game at 89-89 for nearly five minutes created sustained high leverage. Each possession had 5-10% WP swings, making this among the highest-tension finishes ever measured.

Insight 5: Small Samples, Big Moments

Kyrie Irving shot 32% from three in this series. The championship shot was a 28% probability event. Outcomes in single games are largely random - Irving happened to make the biggest one.

Lessons for Strategic Analysis

For Trailing Teams (Down 3 Late)

1. Consider 2-pointer + foul strategy
2. Don't panic into low-percentage threes
3. Calculate possessions remaining vs time
4. Target poor free throw shooters

For Leading Teams (Up 3 Late)

1. Ball security is paramount
2. Don't settle for contested shots
3. Use clock without taking terrible shots
4. Consider defensive approach (foul vs. defend three)

For Win Probability Analysis

1. Context matters (Finals vs regular season)
2. Home court advantage persists
3. Individual player clutch variance is high
4. Single-possession outcomes are largely random

Conclusion

Game 7 of the 2016 Finals demonstrated how high-leverage moments concentrate championship outcomes. The final five minutes saw approximately 100 percentage points of win probability swing between teams. While LeBron's block and Kyrie's three became legendary moments, the analytical framework reveals:

1. The block was the single highest-WPA play
2. Kyrie's shot timing was strategically optimal
3. The Warriors' response was likely suboptimal
4. Close games are determined by 2-3 key possessions

This case study illustrates both the power and limitations of end-of-game analytics: the framework identifies optimal strategies, but execution under pressure remains the ultimate differentiator.

Discussion Questions

1. Should the Warriors have played differently on defense against Kyrie's isolation? What coverage might have been better?

2. If you could advise Steve Kerr with 53 seconds left and down 3, what strategy would you recommend?

3. How should LeBron's block be valued compared to his offensive contributions in the final minutes?

4. Was there any point where Cleveland should have considered fouling to prevent a Warriors three?

References

• NBA Stats (2016). Game 7 play-by-play data.
• ESPN Win Probability Model (2016).
• Basketball-Reference (2016). Finals series statistics.
• Second Spectrum. Tracking data for shot quality metrics.