Case Study 1: EPV Analysis of the Pick-and-Roll
Introduction
The pick-and-roll is basketball's most common and versatile play. This case study uses Expected Possession Value (EPV) to analyze how different pick-and-roll configurations create value and how defenses can optimally respond.
EPV Framework for Pick-and-Roll
Baseline EPV
At possession start, EPV approximately equals league average efficiency (~1.05 points). The pick-and-roll aims to increase EPV by creating advantages.
Value Creation Mechanisms
Ball Handler Options: 1. Pull-up jumper: EPV depends on distance, defender proximity 2. Drive to rim: EPV increases with closer shots 3. Pass to rolling big: EPV depends on roll quality, defender position 4. Pass to corner shooter: EPV spikes on open corner threes
Screener Options: 1. Roll to basket: Creates high-value rim opportunity 2. Pop for three: Creates spacing, moderate EPV shot 3. Slip screen: Surprises defense, high EPV if open
Case Analysis: Elite Pick-and-Roll Duo
Luka Doncic - Dwight Powell Combination
Pre-Screen EPV: 1.05 (league average)
Post-Screen Scenarios:
| Scenario | Probability | EPV | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luka pull-up three | 25% | 1.15 | 0.29 |
| Luka drive to rim | 30% | 1.35 | 0.41 |
| Pass to rolling Powell | 20% | 1.40 | 0.28 |
| Pass to corner shooter | 15% | 1.25 | 0.19 |
| Reset possession | 10% | 0.95 | 0.10 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | 1.27 | 1.27 |
EPV Added: 1.27 - 1.05 = +0.22 per pick-and-roll
Defensive Responses
Drop Coverage: - Defender sags to protect rim - Concedes pull-up jumpers (EPV ~1.10) - Best against poor-shooting ball handlers
Switch: - Screener's defender takes ball handler - Creates potential mismatches (EPV impact varies) - Best with versatile defenders
Hedge/Trap: - Screener's defender jumps out on ball handler - Requires quick recovery - Creates help rotations, possible open shooters
EPV Analysis by Defense Type
| Defense | Ball Handler EPV | Roll EPV | Corner EPV | Net EPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drop | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Switch | 1.25 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Hedge | 1.10 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.25 |
Key Insight: Hedging creates highest corner EPV because defensive rotations often leave shooters open.
Decision-Making Analysis
Optimal Ball Handler Choice
Given EPV for each option, ball handlers should:
- If roll is defended: Take pull-up or drive
- If corner is open: Skip to corner (EPV ~1.25)
- If everything covered: Reset (better than forced shot)
EPV-Based Player Evaluation
High-Value Pick-and-Roll Ball Handlers: - Create EPV above 1.20 consistently - Make correct reads based on defense - Can score and pass effectively
High-Value Screeners: - Roll with good timing and angles - Finish efficiently at rim (high conversion) - Can pop for three when defense overplays roll
Practical Applications
Coaching Insights
- Practice read progressions based on EPV principles
- Install counters for each defensive coverage
- Evaluate players on EPV added, not just points
Front Office Applications
- Value complementary skills: Ball handlers who pass well pair with rolling bigs
- Scheme fit matters: Some players' EPV depends on team construction
- Defense valuation: Players who reduce pick-and-roll EPV provide hidden value
Conclusion
EPV provides a rigorous framework for understanding pick-and-roll value creation and defensive responses. By quantifying the expected points from each action and configuration, teams can optimize their offensive execution and defensive schemes.
Discussion Questions
- How would you use EPV to evaluate a pick-and-roll ball handler?
- What defensive adjustments would EPV analysis recommend against elite pick-and-roll duos?
- How does corner three-point shooting ability affect pick-and-roll EPV?