Case Study 1: Nikola Jokic and the Evolution of Center Evaluation
Executive Summary
Nikola Jokic's consecutive MVP seasons (2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23) forced the basketball analytics community to reconsider how advanced box score metrics evaluate centers. His unprecedented combination of scoring efficiency, playmaking, and rebounding produced some of the highest advanced metric values ever recorded at the center position. This case study examines how PER, Game Score, Usage Rate, and other metrics capture Jokic's unique skill set while revealing both the strengths and limitations of box score-based evaluation.
Background: The Traditional Center Evaluation Framework
Historical Center Metrics
Traditional center evaluation prioritized: - Points per game (scoring volume) - Rebounds per game (dominant) - Blocks per game (rim protection) - Field Goal Percentage (interior efficiency)
Advanced metrics like PER were calibrated around players like Shaquille O'Neal and Hakeem Olajuwon - dominant inside scorers with limited playmaking responsibilities.
The Jokic Challenge
Jokic presented evaluation challenges: - Elite playmaking from the center position (unusual) - Moderate block numbers despite excellent defense (positions don't match stats) - High usage rate for a center (role expansion) - Three-point shooting capability (non-traditional)
Jokic's Advanced Metric Performance
Player Efficiency Rating
| Season | PER | League Rank | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | 25.4 | 6th | First elite season |
| 2020-21 | 31.3 | 1st | MVP, historic level |
| 2021-22 | 32.8 | 1st | MVP, second-highest ever |
| 2022-23 | 31.5 | 1st | Third MVP |
| 2023-24 | 31.0 | 1st | Fourth consecutive #1 |
Jokic's 32.8 PER in 2021-22 ranks second all-time behind Giannis Antetokounmpo's 31.86 in 2019-20.
Why Jokic's PER Is So High
PER formula components favor Jokic's profile:
Positive Contributions: 1. Field Goals Made (weighted by team assist ratio): High volume at efficient rate 2. Assists (2/3 coefficient): Elite playmaking adds substantial value 3. Rebounds: High totals, especially offensive boards 4. Free Throws: Good rate with high percentage
Minimal Negatives: 1. Turnovers: Moderate for usage level 2. Missed Shots: Good efficiency limits penalty 3. Fouls: Rarely in foul trouble
Component Breakdown (2021-22)
| Component | Value | Estimated PER Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Field Goals (805 @ 58.3%) | High | +8-10 |
| Three-Pointers (71) | Moderate | +1 |
| Assists (584, 7.9/game) | Elite | +6-8 |
| Rebounds (1,019) | Elite | +4-5 |
| Steals (99) | Good | +1-2 |
| Blocks (52) | Moderate | +0.5-1 |
| Turnovers (272) | Moderate | -3-4 |
| Missed FG | Low | -2-3 |
| Fouls (203) | Moderate | -1-2 |
Net Effect: Historic PER driven by unique assist contribution for a center.
Usage Rate Analysis
Jokic's Usage Rate Evolution
| Season | USG% | Center Rank | League Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | 27.4% | 1st | ~25th |
| 2020-21 | 28.4% | 1st | ~15th |
| 2021-22 | 31.9% | 1st | 5th |
| 2022-23 | 30.5% | 1st | ~10th |
Context: Center Usage Rates
Historical context for center usage:
| Player | Peak USG% Season | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shaquille O'Neal | 28.6% (1999-00) | Dominant scoring center |
| Joel Embiid | 37.5% (2022-23) | Modern high-usage center |
| Nikola Jokic | 31.9% (2021-22) | Balanced scoring/playmaking |
| Patrick Ewing | 26.5% (1989-90) | Traditional post player |
Jokic maintains elite efficiency despite high usage, unlike historical norms where efficiency declined with increased responsibility.
Usage-Efficiency Relationship
| Player (2021-22) | USG% | TS% | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 37.5% | 61.6% | Highest usage |
| Nikola Jokic | 31.9% | 66.1% | Best efficiency at high usage |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 26.5% | 61.5% | Moderate usage |
Jokic's combination of 31.9% usage with 66.1% TS% is historically unprecedented for any position.
Assist Metrics: The Differentiator
Assist Percentage Comparison
| Center | Season | AST% | Historical Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 2021-22 | 41.2% | Point guard level |
| Nikola Jokic | 2022-23 | 45.1% | Elite point guard level |
| Wilt Chamberlain | 1967-68 | 47.8% | Historic high for center |
| Vlade Divac | 2003-04 | 28.8% | Previous modern record |
Jokic's 45.1% AST% in 2022-23 means he assisted on nearly half of teammate field goals while on court - unprecedented for a center in the modern era.
Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
| Season | AST | TOV | AST/TO | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 634 | 235 | 2.70 | Excellent |
| 2021-22 | 584 | 272 | 2.15 | Very Good |
| 2022-23 | 701 | 264 | 2.66 | Excellent |
For comparison, elite point guards typically have AST/TO ratios of 2.5-3.5. Jokic achieves point guard-level playmaking efficiency from the center position.
Rebounding Metrics
Total Rebound Percentage
| Season | TRB% | League Rank | Center Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 20.8% | 4th | 2nd |
| 2021-22 | 21.5% | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2022-23 | 20.1% | 8th | 4th |
Jokic consistently ranks among the best rebounders despite playing with another strong rebounder (Aaron Gordon) and often staying back to facilitate fast breaks rather than crashing the glass.
Offensive vs. Defensive Rebounding
| Season | ORB% | DRB% | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 9.9% | 31.3% | Defensive emphasis |
| 2022-23 | 9.2% | 29.5% | Similar balance |
Jokic prioritizes defensive rebounds for outlet passing opportunities, reflecting his playmaking role.
Game Score Analysis
Season Game Score Distribution (2021-22)
| Game Score Range | Games | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 35+ (Outstanding) | 12 | 15.2% |
| 25-35 (Excellent) | 34 | 43.0% |
| 15-25 (Good) | 27 | 34.2% |
| 10-15 (Average) | 5 | 6.3% |
| <10 (Below Average) | 1 | 1.3% |
Jokic achieved 20+ Game Score in 58% of games - remarkable consistency for a season leader.
Historic Game Score Performances
Jokic's highest individual Game Scores:
| Date | Opponent | Stats | Game Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/23 | Charlotte | 40 PTS, 27 REB, 10 AST | 52.4 |
| 04/09/22 | Memphis | 35 PTS, 16 REB, 6 AST | 42.1 |
| 01/15/22 | Utah | 26 PTS, 22 REB, 8 AST | 38.9 |
The 40-27-10 performance produced one of the highest Game Scores in NBA history for a triple-double.
The Defensive Measurement Problem
Block Percentage Analysis
| Center | Season | BLK% | Defensive Reputation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert | 2021-22 | 4.3% | Elite rim protector |
| Joel Embiid | 2021-22 | 3.3% | Excellent |
| Nikola Jokic | 2021-22 | 1.2% | Underrated |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 2021-22 | 1.5% | Below average |
Jokic's low BLK% suggests poor rim protection by traditional metrics, but this misses important context.
What BLK% Misses: Jokic's Defensive Value
Contextual Factors: 1. Positioning: Jokic uses positioning over athleticism 2. Altered shots: Forces difficult attempts without blocking 3. Team defense: Orchestrates defensive rotations 4. Post defense: Excellent against traditional centers 5. Switching capability: Can defend perimeter actions
On/Off Defensive Metrics (2021-22): - Defensive Rating On: 108.2 - Defensive Rating Off: 113.4 - Differential: -5.2 (team is 5.2 points/100 better with Jokic)
The on/off data reveals defensive value that BLK% completely misses.
The PER Limitation for Defensive Evaluation
PER captured only Jokic's 52 blocks, missing: - Hundreds of altered shots - Positioning advantages - Help defense coordination - Post-up defense success
This explains why critics note PER may undervalue Jokic's defense while overvaluing certain offensive contributions.
Comparing to Historical Centers
All-Time Center PER Seasons
| Player | Season | PER | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 2021-22 | 32.8 | Historic |
| Shaquille O'Neal | 1999-00 | 30.6 | Dominant |
| David Robinson | 1993-94 | 29.6 | MVP season |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 1971-72 | 28.1 | Peak Kareem |
| Hakeem Olajuwon | 1993-94 | 26.4 | MVP season |
Jokic's PER exceeds all traditional dominant centers, largely due to assist contributions they didn't provide.
Skill Set Comparison
| Metric | Jokic 21-22 | Shaq 99-00 | Hakeem 93-94 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PER | 32.8 | 30.6 | 26.4 |
| USG% | 31.9% | 28.6% | 28.9% |
| AST% | 41.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% |
| TS% | 66.1% | 57.8% | 55.9% |
| BLK% | 1.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% |
The assist rate differential is stark - Jokic creates nearly 4x as many assisted field goals as historical elite centers.
Advanced Metric Limitations Revealed
What Metrics Capture Well
- Offensive creation: High PER reflects scoring and playmaking
- Volume + efficiency: Usage Rate with TS% shows rare combination
- Playmaking: AST% properly credits passing value
- Rebounding: TRB% captures board work
What Metrics Miss or Misrepresent
- Defensive impact: BLK% dramatically undervalues Jokic
- Positioning defense: No box score metric captures this
- Screen setting: Creates value for teammates invisibly
- Pace control: Slows game to preferred tempo
- Gravity: Defensive attention drawn without using possession
The Case for Multi-Metric Evaluation
Jokic demonstrates why single metrics fail: - PER suggests GOAT-level performance (partially accurate) - BLK% suggests poor defense (inaccurate) - USG% alone misses efficiency context - AST% alone misses scoring burden
The complete picture requires examining multiple metrics together with film study and on/off data.
Analytical Lessons
Lesson 1: Unique Players Break Metrics
Jokic's unprecedented skill set produced unprecedented metric values. Metrics calibrated on historical archetypes struggle with genuine outliers.
Lesson 2: Offensive Bias in Advanced Metrics
PER and similar metrics heavily weight offensive contributions. This is why Jokic (elite offense, good defense) produces higher PER than Rudy Gobert (elite defense, limited offense).
Lesson 3: Position Context Matters
A center with 40%+ AST% is different from a point guard with similar numbers. The same value from different positions has different implications.
Lesson 4: Efficiency at Volume Is Rare
Jokic's combination of ~30%+ usage with ~65%+ TS% is historically unprecedented. Most players who absorb high usage see efficiency decline.
Lesson 5: Defense Requires Non-Box-Score Data
Evaluating Jokic's defense through blocks and steals dramatically misses his actual impact. On/off data and tracking metrics provide better insight.
Conclusions
Nikola Jokic's advanced metric profile illustrates both the power and limitations of box score-based evaluation:
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PER effectively captures Jokic's unprecedented combination of scoring efficiency and playmaking, producing historic values
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Usage Rate analysis confirms Jokic maintains elite efficiency despite center-record usage rates
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Assist metrics properly credit playmaking that distinguishes him from historical centers
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Defensive metrics fail to capture Jokic's actual defensive value, relying on blocks that don't reflect his style
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Multi-metric evaluation is essential for players whose skill sets don't match historical archetypes
Jokic's case demonstrates that advanced box score metrics serve as starting points for analysis, not definitive conclusions. The best evaluation combines these metrics with on/off analysis, tracking data, and film study.
Discussion Questions
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Should PER be recalibrated to better value defensive positioning and altered shots?
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How might advanced metrics evolve to capture playmaking centers like Jokic more accurately?
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Is Jokic's PER "real" or does it overstate his impact relative to elite defensive centers like Gobert?
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What additional metrics would help distinguish Jokic's defense from poor rim protectors with similar BLK%?
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How should awards voters weight advanced metrics when evaluating unconventional players?
Data Sources
- NBA.com official statistics
- Basketball-Reference.com
- Cleaning the Glass
- NBA Stats tracking data
- ESPN Stats & Information