Chapter 9 Further Reading: Advanced Box Score Metrics
Annotated Bibliography
This annotated bibliography provides resources for deeper exploration of advanced box score metrics, their construction, application, and limitations.
Foundational Texts
Pro Basketball Forecast
Author: John Hollinger Publisher: Potomac Books, 2005 ISBN: 978-1574888324
Hollinger's definitive explanation of Player Efficiency Rating and related metrics. The original source for PER methodology and interpretation.
Key Content: - Complete PER formula derivation - Game Score development - Historical PER analysis - Metric interpretation guidelines
Why Read This: The authoritative source on PER from its creator.
Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis
Author: Dean Oliver Publisher: Potomac Books, 2004 ISBN: 978-1574886887
Oliver's foundational work provides context for advanced metrics. His "Four Factors" framework influences all subsequent composite metric development.
Key Chapters: - Chapter 2: Individual Offensive Rating methodology - Chapter 4: Defensive evaluation approaches - Chapter 7: Putting metrics together
Why Read This: Establishes theoretical framework that advanced metrics build upon.
The Wages of Wins: Taking Measure of the Many Myths in Modern Sport
Authors: David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt, Stacey L. Brook Publisher: Stanford Business Books, 2006 ISBN: 978-0804758444
Introduces "Wins Produced" as an alternative to PER. Provides critical analysis of how metrics value different contributions.
Key Arguments: - PER overvalues scoring volume - Defensive contributions underweighted - Rebounding value assessment
Why Read This: Critical perspective on PER limitations.
Academic Research
"A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics"
Authors: Justin Kubatko, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pelton, Dan T. Rosenbaum Journal: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 3, Issue 3, 2007
Foundational academic paper establishing standardized definitions for basketball metrics including Usage Rate, Assist Percentage, and Rebounding Percentages.
Topics Covered: - Formal metric definitions - Calculation methodologies - Appropriate use guidelines
Why Read This: Authoritative academic source for metric standardization.
"Measuring How NBA Players Help Their Teams Win"
Author: Dan T. Rosenbaum Publication: 82games.com, 2004
Early influential work on player evaluation that predates many modern metrics. Introduces concepts that inform current approaches.
Historical Significance: - Early composite metric development - Win contribution estimation - Foundation for adjusted methods
Why Read This: Historical context for metric evolution.
"The Case for PER"
Author: John Hollinger Publication: ESPN.com, Various
Hollinger's defense and explanation of PER in response to criticism. Addresses limitations while arguing for appropriate use.
Key Points: - PER as descriptive, not predictive - Appropriate comparison methods - Known limitations acknowledgment
Why Read This: Creator's perspective on metric purpose and misuse.
Critical Analysis
The Midrange Theory: Basketball's Evolution in the Age of Analytics
Author: Seth Partnow Publisher: Triumph Books, 2021 ISBN: 978-1629379210
Partnow provides insider perspective from NBA front office experience. Includes critical assessment of advanced metrics including PER.
Key Chapters: - Chapter 2: Beyond PER - Chapter 6: What metrics miss - Chapter 9: Practical metric application
Why Read This: Practitioner critique of metric limitations.
"PER Diem: Problems with PER"
Various Authors Publication: APBRmetrics forums and analytics community
Community-developed critiques of PER addressing specific formula issues: - Double-counting concerns - Weighting choices - Defensive bias
Why Explore: Detailed technical criticism from analytics community.
Online Resources
Basketball-Reference.com
URL: https://www.basketball-reference.com Type: Statistical Database
Comprehensive source for all advanced box score metrics. Provides PER, Usage Rate, and percentage metrics for all NBA players.
Key Features: - Complete metric calculations - Historical data back to 1979 (most metrics) - Methodology documentation - Leaderboards and filters
Why Use This: Primary data source for metric research.
NBA.com/Stats
URL: https://www.nba.com/stats Type: Official League Statistics
Official source providing PIE and other advanced metrics with tracking context.
Key Features: - Player Impact Estimate (PIE) - Usage Rate calculations - Official definitions - Tracking data integration
Why Use This: Official metrics with proprietary additions.
Cleaning the Glass
URL: https://cleaningtheglass.com Type: Advanced Statistics Site (Subscription)
Ben Falk's site provides advanced metrics with garbage time excluded and thoughtful context.
Unique Features: - Garbage-time-filtered calculations - Percentile rankings - Usage-efficiency analysis - Positional comparisons
Why Use This: Highest-quality metric presentation with proper context.
Dunks & Threes
URL: https://dunksandthrees.com Type: Advanced Analytics Site
Emerging player metrics (EPM) that combine box score with tracking data.
Topics Covered: - Modern composite metrics - Tracking-enhanced evaluation - Metric comparisons
Why Use This: Modern evolution beyond pure box score metrics.
Specialized Topics
Usage Rate Analysis
"Understanding Usage Rate" Basketball-Reference Glossary
Detailed explanation of Usage Rate calculation and interpretation.
"The Volume-Efficiency Trade-off" Various Analytics Writers
Analysis of how Usage Rate relates to efficiency metrics.
Game Score Applications
"Evaluating Single-Game Performance" John Hollinger, ESPN
Original Game Score development and application guidance.
Historical Game Score Leaders Basketball-Reference
Database of highest single-game Game Scores in NBA history.
Positional Analysis
"Position-Adjusted Metrics" Various Sources
Research on how to properly compare metrics across positions: - Center vs. guard rebounding expectations - Point guard assist benchmarks - Positional defensive expectations
Video Resources
Thinking Basketball (YouTube)
Creator: Ben Taylor URL: https://www.youtube.com/c/ThinkingBasketball
Video analysis that contextualizes advanced metrics with film study. Demonstrates what metrics capture and miss.
Relevant Content: - "Why PER Fails" analysis - Historical player evaluation - Metric limitations demonstrations
Why Watch: Visual demonstration of metric blind spots.
Basketball Reference Tutorials
Platform: Various
Tutorials on using Basketball-Reference for metric analysis: - Navigating advanced statistics - Filtering and comparing players - Historical analysis techniques
Historical Context Resources
"The Evolution of Basketball Analytics"
Various Academic Papers
Academic treatments of how basketball metrics developed: - Pre-computer era approaches - Statistical revolution timeline - Current state of measurement
82games.com Archives
URL: http://www.82games.com Type: Historical Analytics Site
Archive of influential early basketball analytics articles including foundational metric development work.
Historical Significance: - Early PER analysis - Alternative metric proposals - Community metric development
Books on Sports Analytics
Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football
Author: Wayne L. Winston Publisher: Princeton University Press, 2009 ISBN: 978-0691139135
Academic treatment of sports analytics including basketball metric development.
Basketball Content: - Rating system development - Win contribution models - Statistical methodology
Basketball Data Science: With Applications in R
Authors: Paola Zuccolotto, Marica Manisera Publisher: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2020 ISBN: 978-0367470852
Technical guide to implementing basketball analytics in R including advanced metric calculation.
Key Content: - PER implementation - Game Score calculation - Usage Rate computation - Statistical testing
Conference Papers
MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
URL: http://www.sloansportsconference.com Type: Annual Conference
Annual conference featuring cutting-edge basketball analytics research.
Relevant Papers: - Metric development research - PER alternatives - Tracking-enhanced metrics - Player evaluation methods
New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (NESSIS)
Type: Academic Conference
Academic statistics conference with basketball analytics content.
Research Focus: - Statistical methodology - Metric validation - Predictive modeling
Metric Comparison Resources
"Comparing Player Evaluation Metrics"
Various Authors
Research comparing different approaches: - PER vs. Win Shares - Box score vs. plus-minus metrics - Composite vs. component analysis
"Which Metric Is Best?"
Community Discussions
Analytics community debates on metric selection: - Use case appropriateness - Predictive vs. descriptive goals - Metric combination strategies
Reading Path Recommendations
For Beginners
- Basketball-Reference glossary pages
- Hollinger's PER explainer articles
- Basic statistics tutorials
- ESPN metric guides
For Intermediate Analysts
- Complete Hollinger's "Pro Basketball Forecast"
- Kubatko et al. academic paper
- Partnow's "The Midrange Theory"
- APBRmetrics community discussions
For Advanced Researchers
- Original academic papers on metric development
- MIT Sloan Conference archives
- Advanced statistical methodology texts
- Current research on metric alternatives
Updates and Current Developments
Advanced metric methodology continues evolving. Stay current through:
- Twitter/X: Follow @johnhollinger, @kpelton, @SethPartnow
- Podcasts: The Lowe Post, Dunc'd On, Thinking Basketball
- Sites: Cleaning the Glass, FiveThirtyEight, The Athletic
- Conferences: MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
This bibliography represents resources available as of the textbook publication date. URLs and availability may change over time.