Chapter 8 Further Reading: Shooting Efficiency Metrics

Annotated Bibliography

This annotated bibliography provides resources for deeper exploration of shooting efficiency metrics, shot selection optimization, and the analytics-driven transformation of basketball offense.

Foundational Texts

Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis

Author: Dean Oliver Publisher: Potomac Books, 2004 ISBN: 978-1574886887

Dean Oliver's seminal work establishes the theoretical framework for basketball efficiency analysis. His "Four Factors" model uses shooting efficiency (eFG%) as the primary factor determining offensive success.

Key Chapters for Shooting Efficiency: - Chapter 1: Introduction to efficiency concepts - Chapter 3: The Four Factors (eFG% emphasized) - Chapter 6: Individual offensive evaluation

Why Read This: The foundational text that established modern basketball efficiency analysis.

Sprawlball: A Visual Tour of the New Era of the NBA

Author: Kirk Goldsberry Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2019 ISBN: 978-1328767516

Goldsberry's visually stunning analysis documents the three-point revolution and shot selection transformation. His shot charts demonstrate expected value concepts visually.

Key Contributions: - Visual evidence of mid-range decline - Zone-specific efficiency mapping - Historical shot distribution trends

Why Read This: Best visual explanation of why shot selection evolved toward three-pointers and rim attempts.

The Midrange Theory: Basketball's Evolution in the Age of Analytics

Author: Seth Partnow Publisher: Triumph Books, 2021 ISBN: 978-1629379210

Partnow, former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, provides practitioner perspective on efficiency metrics and their application.

Key Chapters: - Chapter 3: Shooting Efficiency Deep Dive - Chapter 4: Shot Selection Optimization - Chapter 7: Expected Value Framework

Why Read This: Insider view of how NBA teams apply efficiency analysis.

Academic Research

"A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics"

Authors: Justin Kubatko, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pelton, Dan T. Rosenbaum Journal: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 3, Issue 3, 2007

This foundational paper formalizes efficiency metrics including eFG% and TS%. Establishes standardized definitions used throughout basketball analytics.

Topics Covered: - True Shooting Percentage derivation - The 0.44 coefficient explanation - Efficiency metric standardization

Why Read This: Authoritative academic source for metric definitions and derivations.

"Spatial Analysis of NBA Shots"

Authors: Kirk Goldsberry, Eric Weiss Publication: MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, 2012

Goldsberry's influential paper introduced spatial shooting analysis to broader analytics community. Demonstrates zone-specific efficiency patterns.

Key Findings: - Quantified mid-range inefficiency - Mapped shooting zones by expected value - Established "mort" (mid-range off-the-rim)

Why Read This: Foundational spatial analysis that influenced shot selection revolution.

"Expected Points: A Better Measure of Shooting Efficiency"

Author: Daniel Myers Publication: Basketball Analytics Research, 2017

Myers' research extends expected value analysis to individual shot attempts using tracking data. Introduces expected points framework.

Key Concepts: - Shot-level expected value - Defender proximity adjustments - Shot quality quantification

Why Read This: Bridge between traditional efficiency metrics and tracking-based analysis.

Online Resources

Basketball-Reference.com

URL: https://www.basketball-reference.com Type: Statistical Database

The most comprehensive public source for shooting efficiency statistics. Provides TS%, eFG%, and FG% for all NBA players since 1979.

Key Features: - Historical efficiency data - League-wide efficiency trends - Shot location data (when available)

Why Use This: Essential resource for any efficiency analysis.

Cleaning the Glass

URL: https://cleaningtheglass.com Type: Advanced Statistics Site (Subscription)

Ben Falk's subscription site provides best-in-class shooting efficiency data with garbage time excluded and proper context.

Unique Features: - Shooting efficiency by shot type - Percentile rankings by position - Zone-specific analysis - Expected value calculations

Why Use This: Most refined efficiency data available publicly.

NBA.com/Stats

URL: https://www.nba.com/stats Type: Official League Statistics

The NBA's official statistics portal provides shooting efficiency with tracking data context, including defender distance and shot type classification.

Efficiency Features: - Shooting splits by distance - Efficiency by closest defender - Shot type classification (catch-shoot, pullup, etc.) - Touch time analysis

Why Use This: Official source with tracking-enhanced efficiency data.

PBP Stats

URL: https://www.pbpstats.com Type: Play-by-Play Statistics

Darryl Blackport's site provides detailed shooting efficiency derived from play-by-play data with extensive filtering capabilities.

Unique Features: - Zone-specific efficiency - Situation-specific shooting splits - Lineup shooting analysis - Historical play-by-play derived efficiency

Why Use This: Granular efficiency analysis with extensive customization.

Specialized Topics

Three-Point Shooting Analysis

"The Three-Point Revolution" Various FiveThirtyEight Articles

FiveThirtyEight has published extensive analysis of the three-point revolution: - Historical trend documentation - Expected value analysis - Player-specific three-point studies

URL: https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/three-pointers/

Shot Quality and Expected Value

"How to Measure Shot Quality" Second Spectrum Blog

Second Spectrum's research explains shot quality models used by NBA teams: - Tracking-based shot difficulty - Expected points calculation - Shot selection optimization

Note: Some content requires institutional access.

Free Throw Efficiency

"The Value of Free Throws" Author: Seth Partnow Publication: Various

Partnow's analysis of free throw contribution to efficiency: - Expected value of different free throw situations - FTr as efficiency indicator - Foul-drawing skill quantification

Historical Analysis

"Evolution of NBA Shooting"

Various Sources

Multiple researchers have documented shooting efficiency evolution:

  • Wayne Winston - Historical efficiency trends
  • Neil Paine (FiveThirtyEight) - Era-adjusted shooting analysis
  • Justin Kubatko - Basketball-Reference methodology documentation

Topics Covered: - League-wide TS% trends - Three-point adoption timeline - Shot selection evolution

Pre-Three-Point Era Efficiency

Resources for Historical Context:

  • Basketball-Reference historical data (pre-1979)
  • APBR metrics community research
  • Academic papers on ABA three-point line

Why Explore: Understanding efficiency in context of rule changes.

Video Resources

Thinking Basketball (YouTube)

Creator: Ben Taylor URL: https://www.youtube.com/c/ThinkingBasketball

Taylor's video analysis integrates shooting efficiency with visual evidence. Demonstrates how efficiency metrics explain what we see on film.

Relevant Content: - Player efficiency profiles - Shot selection analysis - Historical efficiency comparisons

Why Watch: Best integration of efficiency metrics and film analysis.

The Lowe Post Podcast

Host: Zach Lowe Platform: ESPN/Spotify

Lowe frequently discusses shooting efficiency with analysts and front office personnel. Provides context for how metrics are used in practice.

Efficiency Discussions: - Shot selection trends - Player efficiency evaluation - Team offensive philosophy

Why Listen: Practitioner perspective on efficiency analysis.

The Dunker Spot

Host: Various Platform: Various podcasts

Analytics-focused podcast covering shooting efficiency topics in depth.

Topics Covered: - Expected value analysis - Shot quality models - Efficiency metric comparisons

Books on Shot Selection and Strategy

Basketball Analytics: Objective and Efficient Strategies for Understanding How Teams Win

Authors: Stephen M. Shea, Christopher E. Baker Publisher: CreateSpace, 2013 ISBN: 978-1492939054

Statistical approach to basketball strategy including extensive shooting efficiency analysis.

Key Chapters: - Shot selection optimization - Expected value frameworks - Team offensive efficiency

Basketball Data Science: With Applications in R

Authors: Paola Zuccolotto, Marica Manisera Publisher: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2020 ISBN: 978-0367470852

Technical guide to basketball analytics with R code examples including efficiency metric implementation.

Efficiency-Related Content: - TS% and eFG% calculation code - Shooting chart visualization - Statistical testing for efficiency differences

Data Sources for Practice

Kaggle Datasets

URL: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets

Multiple NBA shooting datasets available for practice: - Shot logs with coordinates - Player shooting statistics - Historical efficiency data

StatsBomb Open Data

URL: https://github.com/statsbomb/open-data

Open source basketball data for analysis practice.

NBA API (unofficial)

URL: https://github.com/swar/nba_api

Python library for accessing NBA statistics including shooting efficiency data.

Reading Path Recommendations

For Beginners

  1. Basketball-Reference glossary pages
  2. Kirk Goldsberry's "Sprawlball"
  3. FiveThirtyEight explainer articles
  4. Thinking Basketball beginner videos

For Intermediate Analysts

  1. Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper"
  2. Kubatko et al. academic paper
  3. Cleaning the Glass methodology
  4. Seth Partnow's "The Midrange Theory"

For Advanced Researchers

  1. JQAS basketball efficiency papers
  2. MIT Sloan Conference archives
  3. Second Spectrum research publications
  4. Original expected value research

Updates and Living Resources

Shooting efficiency analysis continues to evolve. Stay current through:

  • Twitter/X: Follow @kirkgoldsberry, @SethPartnow, @baborowitz
  • Podcasts: The Lowe Post, Thinking Basketball, Dunc'd On
  • Newsletters: Cleaning the Glass, various analyst newsletters
  • Conferences: MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (annual)

Key Papers and Publications by Topic

True Shooting Percentage

  • Kubatko et al. (2007) - Formal definition
  • Basketball-Reference methodology page
  • Various APBR metrics discussions

Expected Value Analysis

  • Goldsberry & Weiss (2012) - Spatial analysis
  • Second Spectrum research
  • Various MIT Sloan papers

Three-Point Revolution

  • FiveThirtyEight historical analysis
  • Goldsberry "Sprawlball"
  • NBA.com league trend data

Free Throw Efficiency

  • Oliver (2004) - Four Factors framework
  • Partnow various articles
  • Basketball-Reference splits

This bibliography represents resources available as of the textbook publication date. URLs and availability may change over time.