Chapter 10 Further Reading: Plus-Minus and On/Off Analysis
Annotated Bibliography
This annotated bibliography provides resources for deeper exploration of plus-minus analysis, on/off statistics, and the foundation for adjusted methods.
Foundational Texts
Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis
Author: Dean Oliver Publisher: Potomac Books, 2004 ISBN: 978-1574886887
Oliver's foundational work introduces the concept of rating offense and defense on a per-possession basis, laying groundwork for modern plus-minus analysis.
Key Chapters: - Chapter 1: Points per possession framework - Chapter 4: Team rating systems - Chapter 7: Pace and efficiency integration
Why Read This: Establishes theoretical foundation for possession-based analysis that underpins all plus-minus metrics.
The Midrange Theory: Basketball's Evolution in the Age of Analytics
Author: Seth Partnow Publisher: Triumph Books, 2021 ISBN: 978-1629379210
Partnow provides practitioner perspective on how NBA teams use plus-minus data, including its limitations and proper application.
Key Chapters: - Chapter 5: Measuring Player Impact - Chapter 8: What Statistics Miss - Chapter 10: Building Winning Teams
Why Read This: Insider view of how teams interpret and apply on/off analysis.
Academic Research
"A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics"
Authors: Justin Kubatko, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pelton, Dan T. Rosenbaum Journal: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 3, Issue 3, 2007
Foundational paper establishing standardized definitions for basketball metrics including possession estimation used in Net Rating calculations.
Topics Covered: - Possession calculation methodology - Rating systems standardization - Appropriate metric application
Why Read This: Authoritative source for technical definitions.
"Measuring How NBA Players Help Their Teams Win"
Author: Dan T. Rosenbaum Publication: 82games.com, 2004
Early influential work on adjusted plus-minus methodology. Introduces concepts that led to modern RAPM development.
Key Contributions: - Statistical adjustment approach - Multicollinearity discussion - Player contribution estimation
Why Read This: Historical context for adjusted plus-minus development.
"Improved NBA Adjusted +/- Using Regularization and Out-of-Sample Testing"
Author: Joseph Sill Publication: MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, 2010
Landmark paper introducing ridge regression for adjusted plus-minus, establishing RAPM methodology.
Technical Contributions: - Regularization approach - Cross-validation methodology - Stability improvements
Why Read This: Original RAPM development paper, foundation for modern methods.
"An Extended Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus Analysis for Lineup Management"
Authors: Luca Grassetti, Ruggero Bellio, Luca Di Gaspero, Giovanni Fonseca, Paolo Vidoni Journal: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2021
Recent academic work extending RAPM methods for lineup analysis.
Advanced Topics: - Lineup-specific adjustments - Bayesian approaches - Modern computational methods
Why Read This: Cutting-edge academic treatment of plus-minus methodology.
Online Resources
Basketball-Reference.com
URL: https://www.basketball-reference.com Type: Statistical Database
Comprehensive source for on/off statistics. Provides Net Rating splits for all NBA players with sufficient minutes.
Key Features: - On/Off splits page for each player - Lineup data (when available) - Historical plus-minus data
Why Use This: Primary public data source for on/off analysis.
Cleaning the Glass
URL: https://cleaningtheglass.com Type: Advanced Statistics Site (Subscription)
Ben Falk's site provides industry-leading on/off analysis with garbage time excluded and extensive filtering.
Unique Features: - Garbage-time-excluded calculations - Percentile rankings - Lineup analysis tools - Multi-year on/off data
Why Use This: Highest-quality on/off data available publicly.
NBA.com/Stats
URL: https://www.nba.com/stats Type: Official League Statistics
Official source for lineup data and on/off statistics with tracking context.
Key Features: - Official lineup statistics - On/off ratings - Minutes filters - Context breakdowns
Why Use This: Official data source, comprehensive lineup tracking.
PBP Stats
URL: https://www.pbpstats.com Type: Play-by-Play Statistics
Darryl Blackport's site provides detailed plus-minus analysis derived from play-by-play data with extensive filtering capabilities.
Unique Features: - Possession-level analysis - Custom filters (score margin, quarter, etc.) - Lineup combinations - Historical play-by-play data
Why Use This: Most granular publicly available plus-minus data.
Specialized Topics
Lineup Analysis
"The Value of Lineup Data" Various Analytics Writers
Research on optimizing five-man combinations: - Sample size requirements - Synergy identification - Lineup optimization methods
Clutch Plus-Minus
"Measuring Clutch Performance" FiveThirtyEight and Others
Analysis of plus-minus in pressure situations: - Definition issues - Sample size challenges - Year-to-year stability
Playoff vs. Regular Season
"Why Regular Season Doesn't Predict Playoffs" Various Sources
Research on translation of regular season metrics: - Sample size comparisons - Adjustment effects - Strategy changes
Historical Context
Early Plus-Minus Tracking
Dallas Mavericks Historical Project
The Mavericks were pioneers in plus-minus tracking in the late 1990s: - Pre-digital methodology - Early applications - Transition to digital era
APBRmetrics Community
APBRmetrics Forum Archives URL: https://apbrmetrics.com (historical)
Community-developed plus-minus approaches: - Early adjusted methods - Community debates - Methodology evolution
Why Explore: Historical context for metric development.
Modern Metric Development
ESPN's Real Plus-Minus (RPM)
Authors: Jeremias Engelmann, Steve Ilardi
ESPN's implementation of adjusted plus-minus with box score priors: - Methodology overview - Annual updates - Player rankings
FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR
URL: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/
FiveThirtyEight's comprehensive player metric combining plus-minus with box score data: - Methodology documentation - Historical projections - Regular updates
Dunks & Threes EPM
URL: https://dunksandthrees.com/epm
Taylor's EPM combining tracking data with plus-minus: - Modern methodology - Tracking integration - Detailed player ratings
Video Resources
Thinking Basketball (YouTube)
Creator: Ben Taylor URL: https://www.youtube.com/c/ThinkingBasketball
Video analysis integrating plus-minus concepts with film study: - On/off interpretation - Lineup analysis examples - Historical comparisons
Why Watch: Best integration of statistics and visual evidence.
The Lowe Post Podcast
Host: Zach Lowe Platform: ESPN/Spotify
Regular discussions of plus-minus and lineup analysis: - Practitioner perspectives - Team-specific analysis - Methodology discussions
Why Listen: Industry expert perspectives.
Technical Resources
Statistical Methods
"Ridge Regression for Basketball" Various Academic Sources
Technical explanations of regularization: - L2 penalty mathematics - Cross-validation - Hyperparameter selection
Bayesian Approaches
"Bayesian Player Evaluation" Academic Papers
Bayesian methods for plus-minus: - Prior specification - Posterior estimation - Shrinkage interpretation
Books on Related Topics
Statistical Learning for Basketball
Various Academic Texts
Advanced methods applicable to plus-minus: - Regression techniques - Regularization theory - Model validation
Basketball Analytics: Objective and Efficient Strategies
Authors: Stephen M. Shea, Christopher E. Baker Publisher: CreateSpace, 2013
Applied analytics including plus-minus discussion: - Practical applications - Team strategy implications - Historical context
Data Sources for Practice
Play-by-Play Data Sources
- NBA API (unofficial): https://github.com/swar/nba_api
- Basketball-Reference CSV exports
- PBP Stats data access
Practice Datasets
- Kaggle NBA datasets
- Academic open data repositories
- Team-specific historical data
Reading Path Recommendations
For Beginners
- Basketball-Reference glossary pages
- Cleaning the Glass methodology explanations
- Basic on/off interpretation guides
- FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR introduction
For Intermediate Analysts
- Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper"
- Rosenbaum's original adjusted +/- paper
- Sill's RAPM paper
- Partnow's "The Midrange Theory"
For Advanced Researchers
- Academic JQAS papers
- MIT Sloan Conference archives
- Ridge regression methodology texts
- Modern tracking-enhanced methods
Conferences and Presentations
MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
URL: http://www.sloansportsconference.com
Annual conference featuring cutting-edge plus-minus research: - RAPM development papers - Lineup optimization research - Practical applications
New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (NESSIS)
Type: Academic Conference
Academic statistics conference with basketball analytics: - Statistical methodology - Model validation - Research presentations
Updates and Current Developments
Plus-minus methodology continues evolving. Stay current through:
- Twitter/X: Follow @baborowitz, @JerryEngelmann, @NateSilver538
- Podcasts: Thinking Basketball, Dunc'd On, The Lowe Post
- Sites: FiveThirtyEight, Dunks & Threes, Cleaning the Glass
- Conferences: MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (annual)
This bibliography represents resources available as of the textbook publication date. URLs and availability may change over time.