Chapter 23: Draft Modeling and Prospect Evaluation - Quiz

Instructions

This quiz contains 25 questions covering the key concepts from Chapter 23. Select the best answer for multiple-choice questions. Short answer questions should be answered in 2-4 sentences.

Multiple Choice Questions

Question 1

The primary reason for converting college statistics to per-100-possession rates is: - A) It makes the numbers larger and more impressive - B) It normalizes for different team pace across conferences - C) It's required by NBA teams - D) It eliminates the need for conference adjustments

Question 2

According to the translation coefficients in Chapter 23, which statistic translates most reliably from college to NBA? - A) Points per 100 possessions - B) Assists per 100 possessions - C) Free throw percentage - D) Steals per 100 possessions

Question 3

A wingspan ratio greater than 1.06 is classified as: - A) Poor length, defensive concerns - B) Average length - C) Good length - D) Elite length, high defensive upside

Question 4

The typical bust rate for picks 1-5 in the NBA draft is approximately: - A) 10% - B) 25% - C) 40% - D) 55%

Question 5

Which of the following is a statistical "red flag" for bust probability in guards? - A) High assist-to-turnover ratio - B) Free throw percentage below 70% - C) Strong three-point shooting - D) High steal rate

Question 6

The exponential decay model for draft pick value suggests that the expected value drops most steeply: - A) Between picks 30-40 - B) Between picks 20-30 - C) Between picks 10-20 - D) Between picks 1-10

Question 7

When translating international statistics, EuroLeague production has a translation coefficient of approximately: - A) 0.50 (half of production translates) - B) 0.65 (two-thirds of production translates) - C) 0.82 (most production translates) - D) 0.95 (nearly all production translates)

Question 8

The age adjustment formula for college prospects gives a multiplier greater than 1.0 to: - A) Seniors (fifth-year players) - B) Juniors - C) Sophomores - D) Freshmen

Question 9

In draft modeling, walk-forward validation is preferred over k-fold cross-validation because: - A) It's computationally faster - B) It maintains temporal ordering of data - C) It uses more training data - D) It produces more stable results

Question 10

Conference strength adjustments are multiplied by translated statistics. If a player from a conference with factor 0.85 averages 20 pts/100 after translation, his adjusted rate is: - A) 23.5 pts/100 - B) 20.0 pts/100 - C) 17.0 pts/100 - D) 15.0 pts/100

Question 11

The usage-efficiency tradeoff suggests that for every 1% decrease in usage rate, true shooting percentage: - A) Decreases by 1-1.5 percentage points - B) Stays the same - C) Increases by 1-1.5 percentage points - D) Increases by 3-4 percentage points

Question 12

Which position historically has the HIGHEST variance in draft outcomes? - A) Point guard - B) Shooting guard - C) Small forward - D) Center

Question 13

A player drafted at pick #10 has relative value of approximately 0.38 compared to pick #1. To equal the value of pick #1, a team would need approximately: - A) 2 picks at #10 - B) 3 picks at #10 - C) 4 picks at #10 - D) 5 picks at #10

Question 14

The "draft-and-stash" strategy is most appropriate for: - A) One-and-done domestic players - B) International players needing development - C) Four-year college seniors - D) Top-5 picks

Question 15

Which factor is NOT typically included in athletic composite scores for prospects? - A) Maximum vertical leap - B) Lane agility time - C) College GPA - D) Three-quarter court sprint

Question 16

When evaluating one-and-done prospects, additional weight should be given to: - A) Conference tournament performance only - B) High school recruiting rankings and camp evaluations - C) Senior year high school statistics - D) AAU team winning percentage

Question 17

The Tournament Performance Adjustment weights Final Four games at: - A) 1.0x (same as early rounds) - B) 1.10x - C) 1.20x - D) 1.50x

Question 18

Model calibration in draft prediction ensures that: - A) All predictions are correct - B) Predicted probabilities match observed frequencies - C) The model runs quickly - D) Feature importances are equal

Question 19

Production trend is a bust risk factor because: - A) Players always improve year over year - B) Declining production suggests potential issues before the draft - C) It's required by the NBA - D) It determines draft position

Question 20

The "boom or bust" characterization of picks 6-10 refers to: - A) All picks in this range become All-Stars or leave the league - B) These picks have higher variance than 1-5 or 11-20 - C) Teams often make poor decisions with these picks - D) These picks are always traded

Short Answer Questions

Question 21

Explain why free throw percentage is the most reliable predictor of NBA three-point shooting for college prospects, even more reliable than college three-point percentage.

Your Answer:

Question 22

A draft model shows that Player X has a 65% probability of being a "bust" (failing to provide value relative to draft position). Explain why a team might still draft this player and what circumstances would justify this decision.

Your Answer:

Question 23

Describe three key differences in evaluating a 19-year-old EuroLeague prospect versus a 22-year-old college senior with similar statistical production.

Your Answer:

Question 24

A prospect dominated at a mid-major conference, averaging 24 PPG with a 62% TS. His production dropped to 18 PPG with 54% TS in three NCAA tournament games against power conference opponents. How should this information be weighted in his evaluation?

Your Answer:

Question 25

Explain the concept of "survivorship bias" in draft modeling and provide a specific example of how it could lead to incorrect projections.

Your Answer:

Answer Key

Multiple Choice Answers

  1. B - Per-possession rates normalize for pace differences, allowing fair comparison between teams/conferences with different tempos.

  2. C - Free throw percentage has the highest translation coefficient (0.98) and smallest standard error, making it the most reliable translator.

  3. D - Wingspan ratios above 1.06 are classified as elite length with high defensive upside.

  4. B - The approximate bust rate for lottery picks (1-5) is around 25%, though definitions vary.

  5. B - Free throw percentage below 70% for guards is a statistical red flag, as it often indicates shooting form issues that affect three-point translation.

  6. D - The exponential decay is steepest at the beginning of the draft, with the largest value drop between consecutive picks occurring in the top 10.

  7. C - EuroLeague statistics translate at approximately 0.82 for points, reflecting the high quality of competition.

  8. D - Freshmen receive the highest multiplier (1.25) because producing at a high level at a younger age indicates more projection.

  9. B - Walk-forward validation respects time order, ensuring models are only trained on data available at the time of prediction.

  10. C - Adjusted = 20 × 0.85 = 17.0 pts/100. Lower conference strength reduces the adjusted production.

  11. C - The beta coefficient of 0.01-0.015 means efficiency increases 1-1.5 percentage points for each 1% decrease in usage.

  12. D - Centers historically have the highest outcome variance (multiplier 1.25), making them the riskiest position to draft.

  13. B - At 0.38 relative value, you'd need approximately 2.6 picks (rounding to 3) to equal pick #1's value.

  14. B - Draft-and-stash is most appropriate for international players who benefit from continued development overseas.

  15. C - College GPA is not a physical measurement and is not included in athletic composite scores.

  16. B - For one-and-done prospects with limited college data, recruiting rankings and pre-college evaluations carry significant weight.

  17. C - Final Four and Championship games receive 1.20x weight due to the quality of competition and high-pressure environment.

  18. B - Calibration ensures that predictions of "60% probability" actually occur 60% of the time in observed data.

  19. B - Declining production from year to year (e.g., sophomore to junior) is a warning sign of potential issues.

  20. B - Picks 6-10 have a standard deviation of 21.2 WS, higher than picks 1-5 (18.5) or 11-20 (19.8).

Short Answer Rubric

Question 21 - Strong answers should explain that: (1) free throw shooting measures pure shooting mechanics without defensive pressure, (2) college three-point percentage has high variance due to small samples, (3) the NBA three-point line is farther than college, making college three-point shooting a biased predictor.

Question 22 - Acceptable reasons include: high upside potential justifying the risk, team rebuilding situation where taking chances is appropriate, the player fills a specific need, or the alternative options also have high bust probability.

Question 23 - Key differences include: (1) age-based projection (more upside for younger player), (2) different competition level translation (EuroLeague vs. college), (3) physical development potential (19-year-old still maturing), and (4) uncertainty levels (less data but more projection for EuroLeague prospect).

Question 24 - The tournament performance should be weighted but not overweighted due to small sample (3 games). The substantial production and efficiency drop against better competition is concerning and suggests his mid-major dominance may not translate. However, context matters (matchups, team situation).

Question 25 - Survivorship bias occurs when models only include players who succeeded (stayed in the league), missing the patterns of those who failed. Example: A model might underestimate bust risk because busts exit the dataset quickly, leaving only successful players' trajectories to analyze.